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FGUS73 KIWX 142042
ESFIWX


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
442 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  9.5 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  5.3 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 14 2024 - May 31 2024...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    6.9  7.0  7.4  8.1  8.9  9.5 10.0


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.1  8.2  9.5 10.8 12.3 13.6 13.9
Knox IN             10    6.5  6.7  7.2  7.4  7.9  8.4  8.8


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.0  5.3  5.6  6.4  7.1  7.7  8.6
Mottville MI         8    4.6  4.8  5.3  5.9  6.6  7.1  7.9
Elkhart IN          24   20.4 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.1 25.3
South Bend IN      5.5    2.0  2.4  3.4  4.4  5.3  6.7  7.5
Niles MI            11    7.0  7.4  8.3  9.2 10.2 11.9 12.8


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    3.1  3.3  3.9  4.8  5.9  7.2  8.0
Cosperville IN       6    4.6  4.6  5.0  5.6  6.2  6.7  7.3


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Given the record to near record breaking mild condtions with highs
in the 70s last week, no snow cover or ice on rivers was present.
Precipitation amounts during the past 60 days have been above normal
with calculated soil moisture increasing with values today rising
above normal with the additional rainfall today.

...Weather Outlook...
The overal mild weather is expected to persist, although ENSO
conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to a La Nina pattern
by mid to late summer, favoring a more active pattern. Rainfall at
time through the end of May is expected to be near the normal
amounts near 9 inches.

...River Conditions...
At the onset, rivers were near or below action stage along the
St Joseph River and Kankakee Rivers in northwest Indiana and far
southwest Lower Michigan.

...Overall Flood Risk...
Given the moist soil state with recent rainfall, the overall flood
risk is expected to be near normal into May.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued in
ini February of 2025 for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins.


$$