Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FGUS73 KIWX 150943
ESFIWX
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-MIC021-023-027-059-149-OHC003-
039-051-069-125-137-161-171-170945-
ADAMS-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD-CASS IN-DE KALB-ELKHART-FULTON IN-GRANT-
HUNTINGTON-JAY-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-LA PORTE-MARSHALL-MIAMI-NOBLE-
PULASKI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-STEUBEN-WABASH-WELLS-WHITE-WHITLEY-
BERRIEN-BRANCH-CASS MI-HILLSDALE-ST. JOSEPH MI-ALLEN OH-DEFIANCE-
FULTON OH-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-WILLIAMS-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
443 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 /343 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2014/

...INCREASED FLOOD POTENTIAL INTO LATE FEBRUARY...

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK
STARTING LATE NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
FEBRUARY. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE CONTAIN A LARGE QUANTITY OF
STORED WATER...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. A
WINTRY MIX WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY. A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PRODUCE AROUND AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF WATER LOCKED
IN PLACE BY THE SNOW COVER.

A WARM-UP WILL ALSO COMMENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL RESULT IN MELTING OF
THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THIS MELTING
SNOW ATOP THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...BASEMENTS AND SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MAJOR STEM RIVERS COULD FOLLOW.

SHOULD A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OCCUR DURING THIS WARMER
PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR...AND THE SEVERITY OF...RESULTANT
FLOODING WOULD GREATLY INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAK UP AND
DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THICK ICE ON RIVERS WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK FOR ICE JAMS TO DEVELOP AND FURTHER EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
RISK.

FUTURE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME...NOT A CERTAINTY.
IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY VISITING WEATHER.GOV/IWX.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

$$

MURPHY/MAS/NDM





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