Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 052230 RRA
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 11.2 FEET. ST.
JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND...INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE
TO OR ABOVE 5.9 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID MARCH 9 2015 - JUNE 7 2015...

KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN
LOCATION      FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN       10.0   9.7  9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN    13.0  10.3 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.8 13.8 14.6
KNOX IN        10.0   8.2  8.3  8.7  9.0  9.6 10.0 10.6

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION      FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RVRS MI   7.0   5.4  5.6  5.9  6.4  7.0  7.6  8.4
MOTTVILLE  MI   8.0   4.8  5.0  5.3  5.7  6.4  7.0  7.7
ELKHART IN     24.0  20.7 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.7
SOUTH BEND IN   5.5   2.4  2.7  3.2  3.9  4.8  5.9  7.2
NILES MI       11.0   7.4  7.6  8.3  9.0  9.9 10.8 11.8

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN       7.0   3.8  3.9  4.4  5.1  6.0  7.5  7.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND
EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX...ALL LOWER CASE. AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE
HYDROLOGY/RIVERS AND LAKES SECTION.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER ALL OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. WIDELY VARIABLE SNOW DEPTHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM FIVE
TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS THE KANKAKEE AND ELKHART BASINS...AND EIGHT
TO TWENTY INCHES ACROSS THE ST. JOSEPH BASIN. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO RECENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW DEPTH REPORTS OF TWENTY TO THIRTY INCHES
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW WATER CONTENT WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES...HOWEVER WHERE SNOW
DEPTHS ARE IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
WATER CONTENT IS REPORTED. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE FROZEN ACROSS ALL OF
THE REGION DOWN TO A DEPTH OF AT LEAST SIX INCHES...WITH MANY AREAS
REPORTING FROZEN GROUND IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MID MARCH ARE IN THE MID 40S. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S. THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR EITHER ABOVE...NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD. NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING MID MARCH...IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...IS AROUND 0.30
INCHES.

THE MARCH OUTLOOK CALLS FOR MODERATELY INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY 2015 INDICATES NO STRONG
SIGNAL FOR EITHER ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW. MOST POINTS IN THE ST. JOSEPH AND KANKAKEE RIVER BASINS
ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOW VALUES IN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE. A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE FROZEN OR ONLY
PARTIALLY OPEN. DEPTH OF RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN LOW
VELOCITY REGIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT
ICE JAM FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO ICE BREAKUP AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ICE JAM FLOOD ISSUES APPEAR
TO BE IN THE MID MARCH TO EARLY APRIL TIMEFRAME. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE
JAMS CAN RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
FLOODING.

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
DUE TO INITIAL LOW STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL SNOW WATER
CONTENT... VARIED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AND NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING IS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SPRING FLOODS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

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