Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 061717
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE... INDIANA
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.4 FEET. BLUFFTON
INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO
OR ABOVE  0.0 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID MARCH 06 2014 - JUNE 08 2014...

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

ST. JOSEPH RIVER...
SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0   8.4  9.3 11.0 12.1 13.3 14.3 14.8
NEWVILLE IN       12.0   8.9  9.9 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.9 15.2
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0   5.5  6.5  9.0 10.3 11.9 15.3 18.3

ST. MARYS RIVER...
SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0   9.3 12.0 13.2 15.4 18.0 20.5 21.0
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0   6.1  7.2  7.9  9.8 12.3 16.0 17.6

MAUMEE RIVER...
MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0   8.2  9.7 12.2 14.6 17.7 19.4 21.6
DEFIANCE OH       10.0   3.5  3.9  5.0  5.9  7.1  8.7 10.3
NAPOLEON OH       12.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0

TIFFIN RIVER...
TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0   9.4 10.6 12.0 13.0 13.7 14.9 16.0

BLANCHARD RIVER...
BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0  18.6 18.7 19.6 20.9 22.7 23.8 24.9

AUGLAIZE RIVER...
AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0   6.4  7.2  8.7 11.5 13.7 15.5 16.6
DEFIANCE OH       21.0  10.9 11.7 13.0 15.2 17.5 20.1 21.4

UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER...
WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE        11.0   7.5  7.7  8.4  9.4 10.7 12.3 13.1
BLUFFTON IN       10.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
WABASH IN         14.0   8.3  8.7 10.5 11.2 12.7 14.9 16.4
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0   6.8  7.1  7.9  8.4  9.5 10.7 11.7

TIPPECANOE RIVER...
TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0   8.3  9.1 10.3 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.8
WINAMAC IN        10.0   6.3  7.0  8.1  9.1  9.9 10.9 14.8

MISSISSINEWA RIVER...
MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0   4.1  4.4  5.4  6.6  7.7  9.8 10.6

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE
DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. AHPS CAN BE FOUND
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES AND RIVERS AHPS.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK STILL
COVERS ALL OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR
NORTHWEST OHIO. RECENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THERE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER IN THE SNOW COVER.
THIS MEANS THAT IF ALL THE SNOW WERE MELTED...IT WOULD BE THE SAME
AS 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA. CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES MEAN THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN. IN SOME CASES...THE
FROST LEVEL IS AS MUCH AS 4 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL MEAN THAT ANY
SNOW MELT OR RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF INTO AREA
STREAMS AND WATERWAYS.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT MONTH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WITH A SLOWER WARM UP THIS YEAR...THE
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRING THAW WILL BE DELAYED...
POSSIBLY INTO APRIL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE RIVERS WHICH WILL CREATE
A CONCERN FOR ICE JAM FLOODING WHEN THE ICE BEGINS TO BREAK UP.
SO FAR THIS WINTER...THE ONLY MAJOR PROBLEM WITH ICE JAMMING HAS
BEEN IN NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG THE MAUMEE RIVER.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY AND UPDATED
AS NEEDED FOR THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS.

$$





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