Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 061714
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1214 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS
A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 13.5 FEET.
ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND... INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5
FEET.  IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE  9.7 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID MARCH 06 2014 - JUNE 08 2014...

LOCATION   FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN       10 11.1    M    M    M 12.3    M    M    M 13.5

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN    13 12.3    M    M    M 13.9    M    M    M 15.5
KNOX IN        10  9.2    M    M    M 10.3    M    M    M 11.6

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RVRS MI   7  7.9    M    M    M  8.9    M    M    M 11.3
MOTTVILLE MI    8  7.2    M    M    M  8.3    M    M    M 10.3
ELKHART IN     24 23.3    M    M    M 24.7    M    M    M 26.7
SOUTH BEND IN 5.5  5.4    M    M    M  7.1    M    M    M  9.7
NILES MI       11 10.3    M    M    M 11.8    M    M    M 14.0

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN       7  6.1    M    M    M  7.3    M    M    M  9.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK STILL
COVERS ALL OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR
NORTHWEST OHIO. RECENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THERE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER IN THE SNOW COVER.
THIS MEANS THAT IF ALL THE SNOW WERE MELTED...IT WOULD BE THE SAME
AS 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA. CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES MEAN THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN. IN SOME CASES...THE
FROST LEVEL IS AS MUCH AS 4 FEET DEEP. THIS WILL MEAN THAT ANY
SNOW MELT OR RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF INTO AREA
STREAMS AND WATERWAYS.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT MONTH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WITH A SLOWER WARM UP THIS YEAR...THE
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRING THAW WILL BE DELAYED...
POSSIBLY INTO APRIL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE RIVERS WHICH WILL CREATE
A CONCERN FOR ICE JAM FLOODING WHEN THE ICE BEGINS TO BREAK UP.
SO FAR THIS WINTER...THE ONLY MAJOR PROBLEM WITH ICE JAMMING HAS
BEEN IN NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG THE MAUMEE RIVER.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX... INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL
IN LOWER CASE. AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER... CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES
AND RIVERS AHPS.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR... WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

$$





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