Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 11.8 FEET. ST.
JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND...INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE
TO OR ABOVE 7.4 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID FEBRUARY 23 2015 - MAY 24 2015...

KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN
LOCATION      FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN       10.0   9.8 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.8

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN    13.0  10.6 11.2 11.8 12.7 14.0 15.5 16.6
KNOX IN        10.0   8.2  8.6  8.9  9.5 10.2 11.2 12.9

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION      FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RVRS MI   7.0   5.7  6.0  6.3  6.9  7.7  8.5  9.6
MOTTVILLE  MI   8.0   5.1  5.4  5.7  6.2  7.0  7.8  8.8
ELKHART IN     24.0  21.1 21.4 21.7 22.3 23.2 24.8 25.8
SOUTH BEND IN   5.5   2.9  3.2  3.6  4.4  5.4  7.4  9.0
NILES MI       11.0   7.9  8.2  8.7  9.5 10.4 12.0 13.4

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN       7.0   4.4  4.6  4.9  5.7  6.5  8.6  9.3

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES.. THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND
EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX.
AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER HYDROLOGY/RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDELY VARIABLE SNOW DEPTHS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED FROM FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS THE KANKAKEE AND ELKHART
BASINS...AND EIGHT TO TWENTY INCHES ACROSS THE ST. JOSEPH BASIN.
SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
RECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW DEPTH REPORTS OF
TWENTY TO THIRTY INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
SNOW WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY ONE TO TWO
INCHES...HOWEVER WHERE SNOW DEPTHS ARE IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES...
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WATER CONTENT IS REPORTED. SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE FROZEN ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION DOWN TO A
DEPTH OF FOUR INCHES...WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING FROZEN GROUND TO
AS DEEP AS NINE INCHES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MARCH OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR MODERATELY INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE STREAMFLOW.
MOST POINTS IN THE ST. JOSEPH BASIN ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOW
VALUES IN THE 15TH TO 40TH PERCENTILE...WHILE POINTS IN THE KANKAKEE
BASIN ARE CLOSER TO THE 35TH TO 45TH PERCENTILE FOR STREAMFLOW. A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE FROZEN OR ONLY
PARTIALLY OPEN. DEPTH OF RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN LOW
VELOCITY REGIONS INTO EARLY MARCH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT ICE
JAM FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO ICE BREAKUP AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ICE JAM FLOOD ISSUES APPEAR
TO BE IN THE MID MARCH TO EARLY APRIL TIMEFRAME. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE
JAMS CAN RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
FLOODING.

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
DUE TO INITIAL LOW STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL SNOW WATER
CONTENT...BELOW NORMAL TEMEPRATURE OUTLOOKS AND NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING IS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SPRING FLOODS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
MARCH FOR THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS.

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