556
FXUS62 KJAX 021252
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
852 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current forecast for Today looks good...no changes planned in
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft and a weak surface pressure pattern will remain
over the region today. Low level flow will shift to easterly
resulting in an Atlantic sea breeze dominant regime. Drier air
and subsidence will limit convection along the sea breezes as they
shift inland. Best chance of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be focused along the I-75 corridor where sea
breezes collide late this afternoon into evening. Onshore winds
will lead to an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging
from the low 80s along the coast to around 90 west of I-75.
Showers will linger west of I-75 tonight before dissipating by
midnight. Patchy inland fog will again be possible during the
early morning hours on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A large trough digging over the Rockies and the Great Plains will
direct a series of shortwave troughs northeastward across the
lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from Friday
through Saturday. This change in the weather pattern will flatten
ridging aloft over our region on Friday, with a more zonal flow
then allowing for an amplifying shortwave trough to cross the
southeastern states on Friday night and Saturday. A dry air mass
is expected to linger throughout much of Friday across our area,
with the approach of the upstream shortwave trough and mesoscale
boundary collisions possibly developing some convection for inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley during
the afternoon and evening hours. Model blends currently depict
only isolated coverage at this time. Plenty of sunshine from
Friday morning through the mid-afternoon hours and the lingering
dry air mass will boost highs to the upper 80s to around 90 at
most inland locations, with the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze
keeping coastal highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows this weekend
will only fall to the 65-70 degree range, with convective debris
clouds moving overhead likely limiting dense fog potential.

Longwave troughing will progress eastward across the Upper
Midwest and the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into
the southeastern states. Deeper moisture will pool ahead of
this frontal boundary across our region on Saturday, and the
aforementioned shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow
pattern will progress across our region during the afternoon
and evening hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley,
with scattered coverage forecast elsewhere, except for only
isolated activity along the I-95 corridor from St. Augustine
southward. Weak flow aloft should preclude a severe weather
threat, but a few storms may pulse and become strong across
the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA, where global
models indicate ML CAPE values approaching or exceeding
1,000 j/kg during the early to mid afternoon hours.
Increasing cloud cover and a higher coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will keep highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s
for locations along and north of I-10, while a later start to
convection allows highs to reach the mid to upper 80s for
inland locations south of I-10. The afternoon sea breeze will
keep coastal highs generally in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Deeper moisture will remain entrenched over our region on Sunday
and Monday as the frontal boundary over the southeastern states
stalls. Shortwave troughing will progress offshore on Sunday
morning, leaving our area within weak flow aloft. Widely
scattered and mainly diurnal convection will develop along
inland moving mesoscale boundaries such as the Atlantic and
Gulf coast sea breezes. Forecast confidence remains rather low
on Sunday and Monday, as another shortwave trough potentially
traverses the southeastern states, although the latest 00Z
operational ECWMF indicates that a drier and more subsident
air mass may begin to build westward from the Atlantic across
northeast and north central FL by Monday afternoon. Model blends
keep isolated to widely scattered, mainly diurnal convection in
the forecast for Monday at this time. Highs on Sunday and Monday
will climb to the upper 80s inland, with the afternoon sea
breeze keeping coastal highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows will
continue to only fall to the 65-70 degree range area-wide in
the humid air mass that will prevail to the stalled and decaying
frontal boundary over the southeastern states.

Ridging aloft will then build towards the FL peninsula on Tuesday,
as our area would be downstream of of another digging longwave
trough over the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and the Great Plains.
This weather pattern will bring increasingly hot and drier weather
to our area from Tuesday through late next week, as Atlantic surface
ridging extends its axis westward across the FL peninsula.
West-southwesterly low level flow will strengthen, which will delay
or hinder the development of the cooling afternoon Atlantic sea
breeze, resulting in temperatures soaring to the low to mid 90s
inland and the 85-90 degree range at coastal locations. Overnight
lows will only fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Fog this morning will dissipate by 13Z. Easterly winds gradually
increase to around 10 kts this afternoon as the Atlantic sea
breeze shifts inland. Convection will be focused along the I-75
corridor where the sea breezes will likely converge late this
afternoon into evening. Another round of patchy fog will be
possible tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure center will build over coastal New England and
extend down the eastern seaboard into early next week. This will
result in mainly south-southeasterly winds prevailing through
next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges are expected today
and Friday due to the sea breeze. Showers and storms return to the
local waters this weekend as a cold front moves through the
southeast states.

Rip Currents: With generally onshore flow, moderate risk of rip
currents will continue at area beaches through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  67 /  10  10  20  20
SSI  81  69  80  69 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  87  66  86  67 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  83  68  82  68 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  89  65  89  66 /  30  10  10   0
OCF  91  65  91  66 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$