223
FXUS62 KJAX 071329
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
929 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Adjusted PoPs slightly for this afternoon, main area for any
shower/storm development still expected along the I-95 corridor
in NE FL as the sea breeze moves inland. Temperatures this
afternoon will get into the lower 90s for inland locations with
cooler temperatures along the coast in the upper 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridging from out of the Gulf will strengthen over
the region today resulting in inhibited convection with potential
showers and storms forming in the afternoon hours primarily along
the diurnal sea breeze convergence followed by dry weather
conditions through tonight and on into Wednesday morning. High
temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 90s over inland
areas and into the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s over inland
areas and into the lower 70s for areas near the shoreline and
along the St Johns River. Patchy early morning fog developments,
potentially forming over areas west of the I-75 corridor will
dissipate with the sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The main story through midweek will be the abnormally hot afternoons
as stout upper ridging builds overhead and increasing offshore winds
pins the cooling sea breeze over the coastal waters.

Very limited rain chances by Wednesday as a batch of dry air drains
precipitable water and subsidence capping builds. There is a
chance that an isolated late-afternoon shower or two develops
along the pinned sea breeze which may push right into the I-95
corridor but unlikely any further. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
and temps pushing toward the mid 90s areawide. These hot readings
will even occur at the coast with a the sea breeze push being
delayed until around the time of peak heating.

Ridging aloft will flatten slightly by Thursday but gradients
tighten as a cold front to the northwest makes inroads into the
Southeast. Strengthening southwesterly winds, with gusts around 20-
25 mph, will keep the sea breeze offshore and allow deeper mixing
(better heating) under mostly sunny skies. Daily record high
temperatures will be threatened Wednesday and Thursday as Heat Index
values climb to near triple digits. Being the first HOT days of the
year, impacts on heat-sensitive (the young, elderly, and outdoor
workers) groups will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Based on the consistency in the medium range guidance and ensemble
systems, the pattern appears to transition to a wetter pattern this
weekend and into next week as a cold front slides southward into
Florida. With the frontal passage timing details are still a bit
murky, so confidence in specifics remains low. Will have to closely
monitor what appears to be a nocturnal MCS trailing across the
northern Gulf coast region and into southern GA Thursday night into
Friday ahead of the front. The materialization and trajectory of
that MCS will dictate the environment and threat of severe t`storms
with the frontal passage on Friday. Mostly dry conditions are
expected over the weekend as the front stays south but chances
increase early next week as that old front lifts back to the north
as a warm front. Temperatures trend downward and fall below normal
through at least Monday before warming up once again.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions this morning and into the afternoon with lingering
early morning fog developments dispersing by around midmorning.
Potential for diurnal convection with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms forming along the east coast sea
breeze this afternoon, affecting coastal sites and the Jax metro
area between about 20z-00z. Winds will be primarily out of the SW
through the forecast period with inland winds becoming more mild
and variable overnight and into early Wednesday morning.|

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions this morning and into the afternoon with lingering
early morning fog developments dispersing by around midmorning.
Potential for diurnal convection with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms forming along the east coast sea
breeze this afternoon, affecting coastal sites and the Jax metro
area between about 20z-00z. Winds will be primarily out of the SW
through the forecast period with inland winds becoming more mild
and variable overnight and into early Wednesday morning.|

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure ridge will gradually shift south and east through
Thursday with breezy south winds expected at times. Offshore winds
develop by Thursday night as a cold front approaches the region.
Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions
for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday
night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal
passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the
wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches today and Wednesday.
Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today with minor risk on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two inspired by the sea
breeze are possible this afternoon. After today, hotter and drier
conditions prevail under a building ridge of high pressure
Wednesday and Thursday before a late season cold front arrives
Friday. Strengthening surface and transport winds from the
southwest ahead of the front will build dispersion each day
through Friday. High dispersions are expected areawide by Thursday
and likely again Friday. A wetter pattern will kickoff with the
frontal passage this weekend and should continue into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  68  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  86  70  90  71 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  92  68  95  71 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  89  70  93  71 /  10  10  20  10
GNV  91  66  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  91  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$