Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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249 FXUS62 KJAX 292349 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 749 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Slightly lowered chances for precipitation over north central Florida for tonight, however no major updates to the forecast are required at this time. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Sfc high pressure near the Carolina coast will shift southeastward through tonight and allow our low level winds to veer. In addition, a shortwave trough in the mid levels will approach the region from the west which will shift mid levels more out of the south. A decent amount of low level moisture is apparent in the NAM and GFS progs, generally seeing mean RH values of 65-80 percent range. This should support periods of scattered to occasional broken fairly weather cumulus. There may be a couple of showers that skirt across our southwest zones this evening but will be short- lived. Otherwise, mild overnight lows in the 60s are anticipated with light southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tuesday, a weak upper level trough makes its way into the area providing some instability to the region. High pressure off the Atlantic coast will move further east through the week shifting winds to southerly and allowing the Gulf coast and Atlantic sea- breeze to make their way inland in the afternoon, converging along US 17. This convergence along with the weak upper level instability provides slight chances (15-25%) for rain and storms in the afternoon and evening with higher chances for SE GA (35-40%). Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland staying cooler along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s. Wednesday, The weak upper level tough has moved east and a surface high approaches from the west shifting winds to northerly by the afternoon as it approaches. Northerly winds will allow for the sea-breeze from the Gulf and Atlantic to make its way inland again and converge but with the absence of some upper level instability, rain chances will be a bit lower especially for SE GA. Expect temperatures in the upper 80s inland with temperatures in the mid 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The upper level ridge continues to build into the area into Friday drying out the air aloft and reducing the chances for any precipitation for Thursday and Friday. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies Friday will keep temperatures in the upper 80s, remaining in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Chances increase for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the weekend as an upper level trough makes its way through the region and a cold front pushes more moisture into the area from the west. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland with overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions will continue through tonight and into tomorrow with winds becoming more mild and variable during the overnight hours. Potential for showers building on Tuesday extending between 20z through the end of the forecast period with developments more likely to occur along the weak frontal boundary moving into SE GA and in areas of sea breeze convergence over NE FL. Isolated thunderstorms are not indicated in the TAF at this time, but should not be completely ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Breezy southeast winds will continue into Tuesday morning and then become more southerly into Wed as a weak frontal system moves into the region. A few showers or a thunderstorm possible Tue into Wed, mainly offshore waters, associated with the weak frontal system/upper level disturbance moving into the area. Otherwise, winds mostly up to about 15 kt and seas near 3-5 ft, possible touching 15-20 kt and seas up to 4-6 ft briefly but no headlines anticipated at this time. A cold front is then expected to enter the southeast states by Saturday night and Sunday, possibly bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region by late in the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf conditions will create a high end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches rest of today. A moderate risk will likely continue on Tuesday as breezy onshore winds develop during the afternoon hours and breaker heights remain similar to today. The risk may decrease towards midweek as surf heights subside. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 86 65 87 / 0 40 30 20 SSI 66 81 66 83 / 0 20 20 20 JAX 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 20 20 SGJ 66 84 66 87 / 0 20 10 20 GNV 62 87 63 87 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 63 87 63 88 / 0 10 10 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$