Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
750 FXUS62 KKEY 080829 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 429 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 429 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Mostly clear, warm and dry conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Wednesday morning, with radars detecting no precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, and winds on land from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis has changed little during the past 24 hours, with high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, and the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, deep ridging over the Gulf has strengthened during the past 24 hours, with a lower to mid level ridge building over the Florida peninsula. This is reflected by the 00Z Key West sounding, which shows warming and drying in the lower to mid levels during the past 24 hours, with a strengthening inversion based near 4000 feet, and PW dropping to near normal at 1.38 inches. Recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated PWs around the Keys, with an even drier airmass (estimated PWs barely above one inch) pushing westward into the northern Bahamas. Mostly clear, warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through the rest of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico, and a dry airmass with a low inversion prevents even isolated shower development. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 80. Heading into the weekend, a mid-latitude trough swinging offshore from the eastern CONUS will flatten the subtropical ridge south of our latitude, with a surface frontal boundary pushing down the Florida peninsula. This front appears likely to stall and dissipate over South Florida during the weekend with no significant airmass change for the Keys, but may introduce a brief interlude of northerly breezes Saturday night and slightly lower dewpoints on Sunday. Guidance has trended drier through the weekend, and have lowered PoPs accordingly to just 10 percent with mention of thunder removed through Sunday night. The forecast becomes more uncertain early next week, as guidance varies with the handling of the next trough forecast to push eastward from the Southern Plains. It does appear that we should have somewhat greater moisture available, with the subtropical ridge remaining suppressed to our south. Therefore have maintained 20 to 30 percent PoPs with a mention of thunder for Monday through Tuesday. Temps will change little however, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s to near 80. && .MARINE... Issued at 429 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Overnight observations show SE breezes of 10 to 15 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal running just below 3 feet. No marine headlines are currently in effect, but Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be needed for many of the marine zones tonight. From the synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2016, the daily record low temperature of 63F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied as the coldest temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest