951
FXUS63 KLBF 010940
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is potential for strong to severe storms this evening
  into tonight mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett southward
  with a primary threat of large hail.

- Storms from Curtis through Arnold to Spencer eastward may
  produce excessive rainfall and localized flooding .

- There is potential for another round of strong to severe
  storms Friday evening into Friday night mainly south of
  Highway 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A band of showers stretching across southwestern and central
Nebraska will continue to push northward driven by isentropic
lift and large scale ascent, though deep moisture is lacking so
any precipitation will be light a precipitation will be light
and spotty though this morning. However as we get deeper into
this afternoon, low level moisture will start surging northward
into the region with precipitable water values rising into the
90th percentile by early tonight as low pressure moves out of
Colorado with robust mid level FGEN and deformation in the
northwest quadrant. This will allow showers to continue to bloom
from late this afternoon into this evening and eventually
developing into thunderstorms. While surface based instability
is lacking, steep lapse rates aloft will make for some strong to
severe storms by early tonight across portions of central and
western Nebraska mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett and
southward. The elevated nature of the storms will make a good
amount of the low level shear unavailable to updrafts but expect
some of the deeper cores will be hail producers with potential
for large hail especially heading further to the south of I-80.
Given the lack of steep low level lapser rates and lackluster
DCAPEs, strong gusty winds appear to be a lesser secondary
threat but conditions will have to be monitored closely as a
more dynamic environment capable of supporting better potential
for severe storms will reside not very far off to our south and
east. And given moist antecedent conditions and the increasing
precipitable water values supporting a better than 50% chance
for localized rainfall amounts around one inch from Curtis
through Arnold to Spencer and eastward, will be keeping a close
eye on potential for localized flooding tonight before the
precipitation pushes off to our east before daybreak.

With the upper trof still upstream, there may be enough lingering
moisture and instability to keep some showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder around north of Hwy 2 through early Thursday. Then as the
boundary layer dries and becomes deeply mixed expect winds to become
blustery Thursday afternoon with probabilistic guidance showing
mean values for max gusts 30 to 35mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

In this persistent progressive flow regime, our next chance for
precipitation will be Friday afternoon into Friday night with
passage of a strong cold front moving down form the northwest. A
ribbon of moisture will surge up along the front and fuel
development of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front as it passes. The boundary layer will be well mixed with
steep low level lapse rates ahead of the front, along with
modestly steep mid/upper level lapse rates aloft. Wile
instability will be limited, robust forcing combined with steep
lapse rates will give storms potential to produce large hail
and strong gusty winds mainly south of Hwy 2. The front should
be pushing off to our east later Friday night and taking the
showers/storms with it.

Thereafter our progressive pattern aloft will continue with
some brief ridging and improving conditions for Saturday into
Sunday, followed by a strong upper low moving from the west
coast, through the Rockies, and into the Plains by the first
part of next week. This upper low is very dynamic and may bring
a threat for severe thunderstorms to Nebraska by Monday. However
timing, location, and degree of threat is uncertain this far
out so expect the forecast to become better defined over the
next several days.

Temperatures will be seasonable with a trend to above normal by
Sunday and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today across western and
north central Nebraska, with MVFR conditions across southwest
Nebraska this evening.  Bands of mid cloud are observed on satellite
tonight, and are expected to persist at both terminals throughout
the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region this evening, but have omitted thunder from TAFs for now
until confidence in timing and location is higher. Winds this
afternoon have potential to be gusty out of the southeast, and
should calm this evening, outside of potential erratic winds with
thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Richie