453
FXUS63 KLBF 090445
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms will remain
  in the forecast through Thursday.

- After a brief break heading into the weekend, unsettled
  conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  remain in the forecast from Sunday and into the first part of
  next week.

- Temperatures will be seasonably cool with a gradual warming
  trend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Satellite imagery shows clouds and scattered showers blooming across
northern and western Nebraska early this afternoon. With a large,
filling upper low lingering over the region expect the clouds and
showers will continue to expand southward and eastward through this
afternoon behind a very weak frontal boundary moving down from the
north. Diurnal heating this afternoon aids instability with modest
cool advection aloft, though limited moisture will generally confine
showers to along/north of Hwy 2. Overall instability is limited but
lapse rates aloft should be able to support some thunder as well. If
the cool pool aloft was more robust there would be better potential
for some graupel but this looks like a remote possibility. Shear is
also limited and do not expect any significant degree of
organization to convection. Expect scattered showers will
linger into this evening as it diminishes through early
tonight.


The filling upper low will gradually pinch off from the parent trof
and drift a off a bit to the southwest, while the axis of the parent
trof pushes through Nebraska late tonight into Thursday with a
renewed round of diurnally biased scattered showers/thunder
into Thursday evening. Once convection diminishes early Thursday
night, generally dry conditions can be expected through
daybreak Friday.

Highs today and Thursday generally range form the mid/upper 50s
northwest to upper 60s southeast. Lows generally upper 30s
west/lower 40s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in lingering the pinched off
upper low over the southwestern US with some troffiness extending up
through the Rockies into the Plains through the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This will allow moisture to pool over the
Plains and keep unsettled conditions with diurnally biased
scattered showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tuesday. Signals for high impact weather are absent so the
overall weather threat level is low heading into next week.
Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day.
Stronger winds will develop during the afternoon on Thursday, but
should remain below 20 knots. Another round of light rain showers
are expected once again across northern Nebraska on Thursday
afternoon. Any impacts should be minimal and brief. Any isolated
showers across northern Nebraska will dissipate after sunset with
VFR conditions returning to the region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Kulik