168
FXUS66 KLOX 091009
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
309 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...08/130 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, with some cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/251 AM.

Kind of an unusual upper level pattern for May as an upper low
pinches over from its parent trof over Nebraska and then
retrogrades to the SW ending up over Las Vegas Friday
afternoon before slowly pushing eastward on Saturday. Interesting
as this may be the effects on Srn Ca weather will be rather
minimal.

The weak offshore flow did not materialize this morning and this
has allowed the eddy to spin low clouds all the way from Long
Beach to SBA. Low clouds are also spinning into the LA Vlys and
may make it into VTA vly from the east. Clearing will be slower
today with many areas not seeing the sun until late morning. The
lack of offshore flow will likely result in reduced warming than
was previously fcst. Rising hgts will bring warming to the
interior. Most highs today will end up in the upper 60s to the mid
70s.

The eddy will continue to spin tonight and its likely that the low
clouds will arrive sooner. Rising hgts will smoosh the marine
layer and there will be more fog. Stronger onshore flow and a
stronger inversion will add a few more hours to the clearing time
with some beaches remaining cloudy into the afternoon. Look for 2
to 4 degrees of cooling across the coasts and vlys, but sunny
skies will bring an additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming to the
interior. While the csts/vlys will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal
the mtns and interior will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

The eddy is much weaker Fri night and Sat morning. The onshore
flow will be a little weaker as well. The low clouds will affect
most of the coasts south of Pt Conception but the vlys will remain
clear. The low clouds will burn off quicker as well. At the upper
levels the retrograding low will finally begin to push to the east
and hgts will rise. Max temps will respond and warm 2 to 4 degrees
across the entire area.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/1216 AM.

Weak ridging will persist on Sunday. Followed by a weak and dry
cut off low moving in over the area Mon through Wed. Onshore flow
increases through the period and by mid weak may be near +9 to the
east and +6 to the N.

Look for the marine layer to increase each day with later and
later burn offs as the onshore flow increases. Gusty afternoon
winds from the west will also develop esp on Tue and Wed with the
strongest gusts across the LA mtns and the Antelope Vly.

Look for warmer temps on Sunday with 70s across the coasts and 80s
in the vlys. Most areas will cool all three days Mon to Wed with
the csts/vlys cooling the most due to the increased marine layer
and onshore flow. The AV may be the exception as the west winds
will create some downslope warming. From a climate point of view
the csts/vlys will fall to several degrees blo normal while the
inland areas will remain noticeably above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0613Z.

At 0530Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2600 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KPMD and KWJF

Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Low clouds could arrive
+/- 2 hours from fcst time and may last 1 hour longer than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive any
time between 07Z-10Z. Cigs may last til 19Z. There is a 30 percent
chc of IFR cigs arriving at 10/04Z. There is a 25 percent chc of
an 8 kt east wind component 11Z-16Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 08Z. Low clouds could
arrive any time between 08Z-10Z. Cigs may last til 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/136 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Saturday night through Sunday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA
level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Sunday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. On Monday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most areas, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today through Monday.
The only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Saturday
afternoon and night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox