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000
FXUS64 KLUB 140746
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
246 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Upper ridging will dominate the region today and will help to warm
highs into the mid 80s/mid 90s. Surface lee troughing will help to
keep surface winds out southwest, but the gradient will be relaxed
enough that winds should generally stay near or below 15 mph today.
Upper flow will become more southwesterly tonight as the axis of the
upper ridge pushes to our east and an upper low begins moving over
Nevada towards the Four Corners. Winds will remain mostly out of the
southwest overnight and will keep overnight lows in the low 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The mid/upper low mentioned above in the short term section will
progress slowly to the northeast on Monday pushing into western
Colorado by end of the day with an attendant lee surface cyclone
moving from eastern Colorado to western Nebraska. This evolution
will draw low level moisture northward into the eastern parts of the
forecast area on south winds while the dryline will make a push
toward the I-27 corridor during the afternoon. The overall expected
evolution remains on track with very dry and breezy/windy conditions
behind the dryline leading to potential fire weather concerns (see
below) and the potential for convective initiation along and east of
the dryline. Regarding the latter, models suggest a stout capping
inversion could remain in place, further complicated by prolonged
cloud cover in the warm section Monday afternoon. Initiation may be
delayed until later into Monday evening when better mid level
support moves overhead with some cooling in the mid levels. This
scenario could limit supercell coverage, but there certainly will be
severe threat with MUCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk
shear values of 65-75 kts across the eastern zones in the 00Z-06Z
time frame.

After a period of fairly quiet but still warm weather midweek the
focus shifts toward precipitation chances Friday-Saturday. Models
continue to vary fairly significantly through this period but have
trended toward broadly cyclonic upper level flow over much of the
CONUS with increased shower chances across the forecast area as an
short wave trough approaches from the west with the potential for an
isentropic component over a cool air mass that is progged to move
into the forecast area. Confidence remains low given the swings in
the models the last 48-72 hours, but NBM has been consistent with a
precip mention in this time frame and currently see no need to
deviate from it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very dry air will move in behind an eastward moving dryline
Monday afternoon with RH values of 5 to 10 percent across the
western zones where 20 foot winds are also likely to exceed 20 mph
at the 20 foot level. There are some concerns across the northern
half of the area of concern with recent green-up and significant
rainfall. However, RFTI values 7-8 suggest a fire weather concern
even with ERC values in the 0-25th percentile range, and forecast
TAFS fire danger equals very high for that area. So, will hoist a
Fire Weather Watch for Monday 17Z-Tuesday 01Z for the western two
columns of the forecast area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51