Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221743
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Low stratus/fog is possible this morning across the western Rolling
Plains and far southeast TX Panhandle due in part to lingering
moisture from yesterday`s rainfall. This should last until just
after sunrise, before burning off. An upper ridge will gradually
build into the region from the west today, bringing pleasant
weather. Highs will be generally in the mid 70s, with mostly sunny
skies and northeast winds around 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Main concern for the long term forecast remains the potential for a
high wind event on Sunday. The system of concern will be moving
towards the Oregon coast Saturday morning as weak upper-level
ridging remains in place over the forecast area. At the surface,
moist easterly upslope flow will remain in place which will keep
stratus around through the morning. Lee surface troughing will
steadily increase through the day on Saturday shifting winds to the
south-southeast with a noticeable uptick in wind speeds by the
afternoon with sustained winds of 20-30 mph on the Caprock. With
skies remaining mostly cloudy through the day high temperatures will
be cooler than Friday only topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
Winds will remain breezy through the night but slowly veer as a
dryline sharpens near the TX/NM state line. The combination of
cloudy skies and breezy winds will make for a very mild night with
temperatures only dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday morning the center of the upper-level low will be over the
Great Basin but a piece of energy will quickly eject over the Four
Corners region. This feature will bring very strong winds aloft over
the forecast area by Sunday morning with 700 mb winds of 45 kts, 500
mb winds of 55 kts, and 300 mb winds of 140 kts. Therefore as soon
as the morning inversion breaks these stronger winds will begin to
mix down to the surface. To make matters worse the cores of these
jet streaks are expected to be squarely over the forecast area
during the afternoon with 700 mb winds increasing to around 55 kts
and 500 mb winds around 80 kts. Atmospheric soundings indicate that
we should be able to mix up to around 600 mb during the afternoon
hence wind gusts in excess of 60 mph seem probable for most of our
area. Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued for all of the
southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and portions of the Rolling
Plains from 11 am until 10 pm. These strong winds will also lead to
areas of blowing dust. The aforementioned dryline will also quickly
move east through the forecast area bringing much drier air to the
region hence fire weather concerns will also be increased and more
details can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Questions
remain as to how far east the dryline will make it by Sunday
afternoon with most model guidance suggesting the feature should be
about 75 miles east of our forecast area. However since guidance
typically is a bit too bullish shifting the dryline east have kept a
small sliver of a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern
Rolling Plains but activity should quickly move east of our forecast
area.

The second piece of upper-level energy will be diving south into
northern Mexico late Sunday night. The lift from this system will be
bolstered by a surface cold front moving south through the area
Monday morning as well hence a few light rain showers may be
possible although mid and low-level moisture will remain meager. The
front will also bring much colder temperatures with high
temperatures 15-20 degrees colder than Sunday. Temperatures will
remain cool on Tuesday as northerly flow continues as we remain
within the broader upper-level trough. Temperatures will begin to
rebound Wednesday through the end of the week as ridging moves over
the forecast area. We will also need to watch another upper-level
system for late next week which may bring another round of stronger
winds to the area although current indications are this system will
be weaker than the Sunday one.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
three sites. North northeast breezy winds this afternoon before
diminishing this evening as winds veer overnight to the east and
then south. Towards the end of the TAF period, KLBB/KPVW winds
will begin to increase again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Fire weather concerns will increase on Sunday as strong winds move
into the forecast area. Sustained southwesterly winds of 30-45 mph
and wind gusts up to 65 mph currently appear likely for Sunday
afternoon. A dryline will also shift east Sunday morning bringing
much drier air to the region with relative humidity values near 15%
by the afternoon. These low relative humidity values combined with
the strong winds will result in RFTI values of 4-6 across most of
the area. With above normal grass loading across most of the area
any fire that develops may quickly spread.

Fortunately, there are a few limiting factors with this event mainly
in the form of fuel dryness. The past 48 hours has seen rainfall
amounts of a tenth to a half inch across the eastern South Plains,
Rolling Plains, and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Additionally,
much of the day Saturday into Sunday morning is expected to be
cloudy, cool, and moist which may help to keep fuel moisture higher
than otherwise expected. Therefore we will need to closely watch
fuel moisture trends over the next several days to determine the
full extent of fire weather concerns for Sunday. Fuels in the areas
that only saw light rainfall over the past few days should remain
sufficiently dry and therefore a Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for late Sunday morning through Sunday evening for portions of the
South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for TXZ021>025-027>030-033>035-039-040.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
TXZ021>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...11


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