Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260510 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 2 PM CDT, the leading edge of a line of rain and storms was
extended across Arkansas from Viola south-southwestward to Mountain
View to Conway to Malvern to Arkadelphia to Magnolia. The movement
of this line was north-northeastward. At the moment of 2 PM CDT, the
most concerning threat with this convective activity was lightning
across central and southern Arkansas.

MONDAY EVENING:

A cold front will continue to sweep across the state of Arkansas
with a line of rain and storms along the boundary pushing through
the state from west to east. Across most locations of the CWA,
specifically northern and central Arkansas, instability will be
lacking as MUCAPE values are struggling to reach 100 J/kg in this
region. SRH values are more than sufficient for severe weather as
looping hodographs have been present in the latest upper air
observations via the 18Z special flight out of WFO Little Rock.
Cloud cover and rain cooled temperatures have limited instability as
daytime heating has been suppressed across central and northern
Arkansas. The main threats with any storm segment that does become
strong to severe will be lightning, damaging winds, localized flash
flooding, and sub-severe hail as updrafts given the lack instability
will struggle to develop across central and northern Arkansas.

Into southern Arkansas, instability or MUCAPE, which is lacking in
northern and central Arkansas will be meager across south-central
and southeastern Arkansas where the conditional possibility of a
tornado cannot be ruled out completely where SRH values in these
locations are conducive for severe weather in this region. The main
threats will remain as damaging winds and a possible tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. The likely storm mode will be a QLCS or squall
line of storms that will have the ability for severe winds and spin-
up tornadoes within the line. The outside possibility of a few
storms developing ahead of the line does exist and will present the
a conditional threat of damaging winds and producing a tornado as
mentioned instability will be meager, but better than in central and
northern Arkansas, along with SRH values that will support the
rotation of any updrafts that are able to form across southern
Arkansas.

QPF values statewide will range between 1 to 2+ inches of total
rainfall with this system. It is to be noted that in the more
efficient producing cells or line segments could lead to some
localized areas of flash flooding in conjunction with the shield
of precipitation that has been slow to progress eastward at times
and may lead to some localized flash flooding in locations that
see training cells that travel over the same locations for an
extended period of time.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

All thunderstorm activity should be well east of the CWA and state
by midnight into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Colder and
drier air will filter into the state behind the frontal boundary.
Expect fair and dry weather on both Tuesday and Wednesday as sfc
high pressure builds into the region with colder morning
temperatures and afternoon temperatures that will be slightly cooler
as well. Sky conditions will be clear with plentiful amounts of
sunshine and this dry trend will continue into the long-term
forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Not a lot of appreciable changes are noted in the extended period
and not many changes have been made to the grids/zones. Guidance
remains in decent agreement that the majority of the period will be
dry with precipitation chances being brought back into the forecast
towards the conclusion of it.

The period initiates with broad troughing extending from the upper
Michigan Peninsula to the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Trough is flanked by
ridges off the east coast and over the Rockies with surface high
pressure building in from the north. Resultant pattern will keep
temperatures a few degrees below seasonal averages.

Aforementioned surface high will shift to the southeast during the
day Thursday with upper ridging starting to build over the area.
Temperatures will warm in response with readings climbing to above
seasonal through the weekend. Airmass does begin to moisten up over
the weekend and into next week with a frontal dropping down from the
north which may trigger some activity late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Low clouds will remain in place across some area terminals for the
next few hours with a second round of low clouds expected to
persist across N AR terminals through much of the day. Precip has
come to an end and sfc winds will largely be W-NW throughout the
day, gusty at times. Winds will die down after 27/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  35  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         62  37  63  38 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       50  30  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  35  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  62  39  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     65  41  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      59  34  63  37 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  52  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        58  37  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  38  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   57  34  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      60  39  59  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67


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