Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232304
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

High pressure will bring a cold night to the Mid-South tonight
with lows in the 30s. A trough of low pressure in the Southwest
United States will move into the Mississippi Valley Monday into
Monday night, bringing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. A strong to severe thunderstorm may be possible
over portions of east Arkansas south of I-40 Monday afternoon into
Monday night, along with the potential for heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. High pressure will build in behind a cold front for
mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from the
Appalachians back through the Lower Mississippi Valley near the
Gulf Coast and into Central and West Texas. Cold air advection
behind the front is still producing some elevated winds across the
Mid-South but are lower than this morning. Ample mixing has
resulted in the dissipation of the stratocumulus across the
forecast area. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT have risen into the
50s to lower 60s with temperatures slightly lower along the
Mississippi River due to the recent cloud cover. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential along with the potential for high winds and
heavy rainfall Monday afternoon into Monday night are the primary
concerns in this afternoon`s forecast issuance.

A 1028 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest
will bring a continuation of dry weather to the Mid-South tonight
with lows ranging from the middle 30s near the Tennessee River and
upper 30s to approaching 40 degrees near the Mississippi River.
Confidence is low for the development of frost tonight as winds
will remain elevated aloft and near the surface.

Short-term models indicate a mid-level trough over the Southwest
United States will eject into the Central and Southern Plains on
Sunday and into the Mississippi Valley for Monday into Monday
night. Cyclogenesis in the Central Plains is expected to result in
a tightening pressure gradient across the region for Monday into
Monday night. Confidence is increasing with the potential for
Wind Advisory conditions across the region. Latest NBM model
output hints at the potential for high winds during this time
period generally west of the Mississippi River. However, confidence
isn`t high enough at this moment to consider a High Wind Watch for
sustained or wind gusts reaching warning criteria given the lack
of model consensus within operational and probabilistic datasets.
This will continue to be monitored for potential headlines over
the next 24-48 hrs if confidence increases.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold
front over the region Monday and increasing throughout the day
into Monday night. Precipitable water values in the 99th
percentile for late March combined with a slow moving front and
strengthening low level jet have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall with amounts averaging between 1.5 to 3 inches through
Tuesday evening.

Model trends continue to indicate excellent kinematics and
favorable upper-level divergence with this system. This low-
CAPE/high shear environment favors convection in the form of a
QLCS over a small portion of northwest Mississippi. However, the
lack of quality surface and elevated instability may inhibit the
overall severe thunderstorm threat. Damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado would be the threats if a bowing segment could exhibit
severe characteristics.

High pressure will build in behind the front bringing a period of
dry weather to the region for mid to late next week.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF cycle. Winds will
become easterly tonight and from the southeast tomorrow. Winds
should stay up a bit overnight, generally 6-10kt and around 10kts
tomorrow increasing to 10-15kt tomorrow(Sunday) night ahead of
the next storm system developing in the Plains. Wind shear is
expected tomorrow (Sunday) night.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS


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