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000
FXUS63 KMKX 150247
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
947 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps and sunny weather continue on Monday.

- Severe thunderstorm potential decreasing Tuesday as system
  slows down and delays the onset of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 945 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Thermal contrast between the land and lake coupled with weak
synoptic wind flow on Monday should develop a lake breeze
(similar to what occurred earlier today), which is expected to
hold daytime highs to the 60s in lakeshore counties Monday
afternoon, while southern and western areas of the CWA reach the
low 70s. Late Monday afternoon, the synoptic wind flow turns
easterly in advance of the approaching low pressure system,
allowing the lake breeze boundary to sweep the rest of the way
westward through the CWA, resulting in a more rapid cool down
Monday evening. Clouds approach Monday night to hold overnight
lows in the 40s.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

As high pressure builds in from the west and moves overhead
tonight. Dry weather is expected to continue across southern
Wisconsin. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through
across the northwestern portions of our forecast area through
this evening. For additional details on the elevated Fire
weather look for the Fire Weather section below. Winds will
become light and variable through Monday morning until the high
pressure begins to exit heading toward the New England States.

While clear skies are expected to persist Monday, temperatures
will be a bit cooler than today. Lakeshore areas will be kept
cooler do to the northeast to east wind. Overall southern
Wisconsin will be a bit cooler due to the light winds, decreased
mixing and lack of any WAA. While cooler than today,
temperatures are still expected to top out in the mid 60s to low
70s.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday night through Sunday:

The low pressure system over the central Plains early this
week has continued to slow down its progression northeastward.
This has resulting in delayed onset of rain/storms for Tuesday.
As this low tracks toward the Great Lakes Region the associated
sfc warm front will initially kick off the rainfall. With a
further delay on the onset, Tuesday morning looks to be the
earliest this could begin with a few guidance runs suggesting
parts of the area may not see rain until Tuesday afternoon. It
is still looking likely(roughly 80% chance) that the line of
storms along the warm front will have a few thunderstorms
embedded within however, the window for severe weather is
decreasing as this system continues to slow down.

While rain chances remain high Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
increasing moisture and good lift (both from upper level PVA,
LLJ and WAA). As the system onset becomes delayed the likelihood
of getting a period of time for the atmosphere to recover and
become more unstable with warmer conditions is decreasing. The
uncertainty now is becoming how much instability could we
muster behind the warm front if it can efficient lift north.
The lake will likely play a roll as well as the predominately
easterly winds expected during this time will likely (80% or
more) impact temperatures and instability near the surface.

Heading into Thursday this system will begin to pull out of the
Great Lakes Region trekking northeast. Some rain showers could
linger as a wave of upper level PVA rolls through. There will
still be some good mid level moisture present across southern
Wisconsin during the time, which could lead to some isolated to
scattered showers. For the weekend, high pressure will return
bringing with it a cooler air mass. While dry conditions are
anticipated, temperatures will likely remain in the 50s for the
weekend.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 945 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions continue through Monday under mostly clear skies.
Light and variable winds expected overnight as a high pressure
system approaches from the northwest. A slow north wind develops
late Monday morning, then (around noon) a lake breeze front
will slowly begin to drift inland from Lake Michigan. TAFs for
KSBM, KMKE, and KENW currently indicate a 2PM to 3PM arrival for
this front (accompanied by a wind shift to due east), models
disagree on the arrival time by an hour or two but this remains
our best guess. Gusty east winds gradually overtake the whole
region (from west to east) late Monday night ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure is building in across the western Great Lakes
Region today. Breezy northwest winds this afternoon/evening will
become light and variable overnight as the high pressure moves
overhead. Monday afternoon winds will become east to northeasterly
as high pressure continues eastward and the next system in the
central plains advances northeast.

Gusty southerly winds are expected to return by Tuesday over the
open waters with gales becoming more likely Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some thunderstorms are possible across largely the
southern portion of the lake during this period.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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