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000
FXUS62 KMLB 141331
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

It`s been another dry and chilly morning across east central
Florida with temperatures dropping into the low 40s to low 50s
this morning with the exception of St. Lucie county where
temperatures were a few degrees warmer. A record low of 46
degrees was tied this morning at Vero Beach. Meanwhile, high
pressure continues to build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
the state of Florida. Temperatures will warm up quickly today with
sunny skies and surface flow veering east to southeast into the
afternoon. Another dry day is expected with PWATs less than 0.5"
and RH values in the mid 20s to low 40s. High temperatures are
forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast and the
low to mid 80s inland west of I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 908 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast. Light and variable winds this
morning are forecast to veer onshore into the afternoon from the
east-southeast at 5-12kts, then become light and variable again
overnight. Dry weather with mostly clear skies are forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today-Tonight... High pressure will remain in place over the region,
with clear skies and dry conditions persisting over the local area.
Forecast soundings show substantial dryness through the atmosphere,
as well as PW values of 0.5" or less, which supports dry conditions
dominating the local weather with rain chances remaining out of the
forecast through the period. Light and variable winds early this
morning will become northeast by mid-morning with wind speeds around
10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the
afternoon and push inland, veering the winds east to southeast.
Winds will then become light and variable once again overnight.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend today, with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s east of I-95, and low to mid 80s west of
I-95.

Mon...High pressure will scoot out to sea over the Atlc but a
trailing ridge axis will extend westward across central FL. There
should some patchy mid and high clouds (altocu and/or cirrus) but
low levels look too dry for much stratocu. A gradual warming trend
will commence with max temps solidly mid 80s interior and near 80
coast with winds becoming East around 10 mph.

Tue-Sat...Mid-level ridge builds across the GoMex and FL peninsula
Tue-Wed before being flattened by southern stream shortwave
energy with zonal flow forecast to persist thereafter. In the low
levels, the Atlc ridge axis will initially lift north near 30N Tue
and Wed then slip southward, reaching south FL Thu. These
features will block any frontal passages at least through midweek
resulting in continued dry conditions with a warming trend. A weak
trough (cannot call it a front) may push through late Thu or Thu
night but dearth of low level moisture argues against introducing
any rain chances but GFS does spit out a little QPF. Behind the
trough, reinforcing dry air is forecast for Fri and into Sat but
not any cooler air. Have kept the forecast dry thru Saturday. Max
temps near 90 Wed, and low 90s Thu-Sat over the interior. Daily
afternoon sea breezes will keep coastal communities a little
cooler in the low to mid 80s Wed warming to the mid to upper 80s
Fri-Sat due to a more delayed sea breeze onset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions through the period.
North to northwest winds generally below 10 KT north of Cape
Canaveral with northeast to east winds from Cape Canaveral southward
with speeds around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form this afternoon, veering the winds easterly. Winds will veer
southeast overnight with speeds 5-10 KT. Seas 3-5ft this morning
will subside to 2-4ft by the afternoon, and 2-3ft overnight. Rain
chances remain out of the forecast through tonight.

Mon-Thu...Favorable boating conditions with the Atlc ridge axis
initially draped across our northern waters Mon, lifting north to
about 30N lat Tue, then shifting back southward reaching south FL
Thu. E-SE winds 10 knots Mon becoming SE 10-15 knots Tue-Wed then
S-SW 10 knots Thu, but turning onshore near the coast in an aftn
sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft Mon-Tue, then 3-4 ft Tue night-Wed. Seas
subside back 2-3 feet Thu as offshore flow develops. No
rain/storms forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will remain in control through mid week with a dry
airmass in place and warming temperatures. Long duration of
critical RH values of 20 to 25 percent will occur again this
afternoon over the interior counties and around 30 percent on
Monday afternoon. Slightly higher min RH values near the coast, 30
to 40 percent today and 40 to 50 percent Monday. Winds will be
light and variable this morning with high pressure centered
nearby, turning east at 5 to 9 mph this afternoon interior and 8
to 12 mph coast. Similar wind speed and direction on Monday with
winds gradually veering more Southeast mid week and ticking up
closer to 15 mph especially near the coast. Dispersion values will
be generally Good both today and Monday. No appreciable rain is
forecast through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  61  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  81  59  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  83  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling