Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
804 FXUS62 KMLB 070912 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 512 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Today/Tonight...Low level ridge axis will shift south and be located across central FL. This will promote a more southerly flow, turning onshore (E/SE) and becoming breezy (15-20 mph) along the coast this afternoon. The sea breeze will be a bit slower pushing inland so the collision with the west coast breeze will occur a little farther east than previous days, roughly from Lake George to Poinciana between 6 and 8pm. This should result in scattered showers and isolated storms and have drawn a stripe of 30 PoPs down the spine of the peninsula, including Orlando metro. A N to NW steering flow should keep the showers and isolated storms over the interior so coastal sections should remain dry. Convection should diminish before midnight with a quiet overnight. Temps aloft not very cold (-8C) as mid level ridge builds over the area but assocd mid level drying will produce DCAPE above 1000 J/KG so gusty winds will be possible with any deep convection. Max temps a couple degrees warmer today...reaching lower 90s interior as well as inland portions of the coastal counties (west of I 95) while immediate coast will hold in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday-Thursday...The mid-level ridge extending from the Bay of Campeche northeast across Florida continues to build through Thursday, peaking in the afternoon to evening. At the surface, high pressure settles across the Atlantic subtropics, as the ridge axis extending across South Florida continues to drift further south. Surface flow veers from southerly Wednesday to westerly Thursday in response, which combined with stacked high pressure and subsidence aloft, will result in the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Inland, afternoon high soar into the M90s Wednesday and the M-U90s Thursday, with southern Osceola and the adjacent counties looking exceptionally toasty with highs forecast around 98F. Wednesday`s forecast highs come pretty close to the NBM 90th percentile, meaning it`s more likely for these highs to be over cooked than under cooked, but there`s a little more spread on Thursday, and slightly greater possibility for highs to tick up an extra degree or two more than currently advertised. Along the coastal corridor, highs generally in the M-U80s near the coast (mostly in the U80s) and 90- L90s along I-95 Wednesday, which could drop later in the afternoon once the sea breeze develops, but more southwesterly flow Thursday will hold off the sea breeze, allowing highs to climb in the U80s-90 near the coast and the L90s along I-95. Global models are still advertising rain chances on Wednesday, but soundings continue to show very dry air in the low and upper levels, so have kept these rain chances capped at a silent 10 pct. Winds Wednesday south to southwest 5-10 mph, becoming southeast 10-15 mph along the coast with the pinned sea breeze, ease to 5-10 mph overnight. More southwesterly flow Thursday will accelerate the west coast sea breeze, resulting in winds southwesterly to westerly 10-15 mph across the interior in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze reaches those locations, while the the coastal corridor stays southerly to southeasterly 10-15 mph in the pinned east coast sea breeze. A bit more of an overnight breeze Thursday as southwesterly winds hold around 10 mph. Overnight lows well above normal in the low 70s. Friday-Tuesday...Ridging aloft is flattened by a substantial mid- upper level trough digging down the central and eastern CONUS, with flow over Florida becoming generally zonal. A weakening cold front drops into Florida late Friday into Saturday, shunting high pressure over the Atlantic out to sea, and bringing some much needed chances for rain. However, rain won`t come before one more very hot day Friday with highs in the 90s, even along the barrier islands, as southwesterly flow ahead of the front becomes breezy. Some disagreement in moisture placement along the front between models, and thus decreasing confidence in rain chances, with the GFS sweeping the highest moisture north of Florida, and the ECM bringing it on down to us. Kept PoPs a conservative 20-30 pct for now. The front stalls to the south, keeping 20-40 pct rain chances in the forecast through the weekend, then high pressure sliding from the deep south into the adjacent Atlantic waters looks to bring the stationary front and associated moisture back over central Florida, further increasing rain chances through much of next week. Temperatures slowly work their way back towards normal across most of ECFL, but remain above normal across the south through early next week, with highs ranging from the 80s near the coast to the M90s near Lake Okeechobee on Saturday, slowly dropping to U70s-M80s near the coast and M-U80s inland Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 70s ease back down into the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Light S to SE wind early this morning will increase from the E/SE along the coast near 15 knots behind the sea breeze this afternoon. A sea breeze collision will occur btwn 22Z-24Z just to the west of MCO and will maintain VCSH for interior terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Today/Tonight...Atlc ridge axis will slip southward across the local waters supporting a south wind 8-12 knots. A SE sea breeze will develop near the coast around 15 knots early this aftn. Winds will become uniformly S/SW 10-14 knots this evening as the sea breeze circulation diminishes. Seas 2-3 feet, building to 4 ft well offshore Volusia/Brevard counties after midnight. Wednesday-Saturday...Generally favorable boating conditions from the morning through the early evening, but late evening wind surges will result in poor boating conditions during the overnight this week. The ridge axis of high pressure draped across the Atlantic subtropics drifts from Central to South Florida as a cold front approaches, reaching the waters late Friday. The front pushes through overnight into Saturday, stalling near the Straits of Florida late Saturday. Gradient winds veer from SW-S Wednesday and Thursday to SW Friday ahead of the front, becoming S-SE and increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoon once the sea breeze develops. Winds then further increasing to 15-20 kts in the late evening and early overnight, before returning to S-SW around 10 kts early in the morning. Once the front passes, winds veer to the NW-N, but a relatively loose pressure gradient will result in speeds 5-10 kts behind the front, becoming variable at times Saturday afternoon. Isolated to scattered lightning storms possible from Friday onward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Today...Breezy SE winds will develop near the coast 15-20 mph with some higher gusts this afternoon but min RH values will hold near 50 percent. Over the interior, winds will be S to SE 8-12 mph with min RH values falling in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A late day/ early evening sea breeze collision may spark isolated lightning storms over the interior. Wednesday-Sunday...Dry air and increasing temperatures will push min RHs inland west of I-95 down to 30-40 pct Thursday through Sunday, with some daily variation as a weak cool front passes through late Friday into Saturday, which then stalls to the south late Saturday. Southwesterly winds increase this week as the front approaches, becoming breezy by Friday (15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph). Rain and lightning chances return Friday onward despite the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 70 91 71 / 20 20 10 0 MCO 92 71 95 73 / 30 20 10 10 MLB 87 70 89 72 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 88 68 91 71 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 93 70 94 73 / 30 20 10 0 ORL 93 72 95 74 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 88 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM...Haley