192
FXUS64 KMOB 102103
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A loosely organized line of eastward moving showers and
thunderstorms over the marine portions of the forecast area will
continue to move south through the afternoon hours. Stratus over
land portions of the forecast area will continue to mix out, with
mostly sunny skies allowing for good afternoon heating, and
temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s over inland areas. A
drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move over the forecast area
behind a southeastward moving cold front currently near I-65.
Temperatures around seasonable norms return for tonight and
Saturday. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s well north of
Highway 84 to low 60s south of I-10 are expected tonight. Saturday,
temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s over Wilcox to
Crenshaw Counties, with low 80s over our southern two tiers of
counties with a continuation of dry weather conditions. /16

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The short term forecast period will begin dry but will transition
to a stormy pattern again by early next week. Surface high
pressure will be centered over the Southeastern U.S. on Saturday
night as subtle mid/upper level ridging shifts northward over the
north central Gulf Coast. Dry and pleasant conditions will
persist through Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 80s with
continued low humidity.

This brief dry period will abruptly change again as the upper
level low pressure currently positioned over the Four Corners
region ejects eastward as a positively tilted trough into the
Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Sunday night. The surface
high will shift east off of the Southeast U.S. coast with return
southeasterly low level flow gradually advecting deeper moisture
and higher dewpoints into the forecast area beginning Sunday night
as a surface warm front begins to lift north towards the coast.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop overnight and then
become more widespread on Monday as the warm front lifts northeast
across the area. We cannot rule out a strong to isolated severe
storm by Monday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes along
and south of the warm front combined with 40-50kts of mid level
flow.

By Monday night, a 100kt upper level jet streak will eject
northeast from the Southern Plains into the Mid South as the
mid/upper trough axis becomes increasingly negatively tilted.
Large scale ascent will increase as upper level diffluence
becomes enhanced and our area becomes positioned beneath the right
entrance region of the upper jet streak over the Tennessee Valley
and the left exit region of another subtropical jet streak along
the Gulf Coast. Although there still are some subtle differences
between the ensemble members with respect to the intensity of the
mid/upper trough, both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble clusters
suggest the trough should be 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations below
the mean heights. Also both model ensemble guidance indicate a
strengthening of the lower to mid level flow across the central
Gulf Coast. This along with guidance trending towards increasing
probabilities of moderate instability and shear combinations,
there is increasing potential for severe thunderstorms. It still
remains too soon to provide specific details, but we will continue
to monitor this closely through the weekend. There may also be an
increased threat for flooding early next week with several rounds
of storms expected. /JLH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday behind the
departing trough. There will be a brief period of dry weather
for mid week as shortwave ridging builds. Another potent trough
will approach by the end of next week with another threat for
potential strong to severe storms. The potential for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding may also continue to increase as the
ground becomes more saturated. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A tightening of the pressure gradient between a developing
surface low over the Plains and a surface high just off the East
Coast will bring Small Craft level winds starting Tuesday night. A
significant portion of area waters will see gusts to gale force
beginning late Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching front
through Thursday afternoon behind the front`s passage. There is
expected to be a lull to below near the front`s passage. Winds
will ease Friday into the weekend and become more variable as
surface high pressure moves over the area. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      61  83  63  82  66  78  68  84 /   0   0   0  10  30  80  70  70
Pensacola   65  83  66  82  69  79  72  83 /   0   0   0  10  30  70  70  80
Destin      66  82  68  82  71  80  72  81 /   0   0   0   0  20  60  70  80
Evergreen   58  81  58  84  62  79  65  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  70  70  80
Waynesboro  56  81  60  81  61  75  64  84 /   0   0   0  10  30  80  60  60
Camden      55  78  58  82  62  74  64  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  70  70  70
Crestview   58  84  58  84  62  82  66  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  60  70  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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