538
FNUS74 KMOB 081129
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Desoto Block 7207 Buttercup Flats...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 81 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE BURN AREA...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions are expected at the burn site today through
Thursday afternoon. Afternoon relative humidity values remain
well above critical thresholds through the period. Southerly
transport winds continue today between 20 and 25 mph, decreasing
to 10 to 15 mph on Thursday. Surface wind gusts should average
around 25 mph, which will exceed your gust threshold, from late
this morning through this afternoon due to strong heating and deep
mixing. Mixing heights this afternoon will range between 4.5kft
and 5kft, dropping to between 3.5kft and 4kft on Thursday
afternoon. Afternoon dispersions are expected to be good today and
generally good tomorrow.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog will be possible both
early this morning and again late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Dense fog is not anticipated at this time and
visibilities should remain at or greater than 3 miles.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1067-1372 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 23 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 9 to 10 meters/second.
Dispersion index....62 increasing to 81 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     59     49     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............84     89     90     89
RH..............70     57     54     54
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..10     14     16     16
20 FT wind gust.18     24     26     26
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   4300   4500   4100
Mix hgt (m).....1070   1310   1370   1250
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.20     21     23     22
Trans wind dir..S      S      S      S
Trans spd (m/s).9      9      10     10
Dispersion idx..59     62     81     80
LVORI...........3      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...213-1250 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 6 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....80 decreasing to 17.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     59     78     75     76     82
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............85     79     75     75     74     73
RH..............61     77     90     94     97     100
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..14     12     12     12     10     8
20 FT wind gust.23     21     20     20     17     14
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   1600   1600   1000   1100   1300
Mix hgt (m).....1250   490    490    300    340    400
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      SSW    SSW
Transp wind spd.21     17     18     17     16     15
Trans wind dir..S      S      S      S      SSW    SSW
Trans spd (m/s).9      8      8      8      7      7
Dispersion idx..80     15     14     15     14     13
LVORI...........1      4      5      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335-1311 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 5 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to 51.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........79     73     68     65     60     52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............73     75     82     86     89     90
RH..............97     97     77     68     59     58
20 FT wind dir..S      SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
20 FT wind spd..9      8      9      10     12     12
20 FT wind gust.15     13     14     16     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   1600   3100   3800   4100   3700
Mix hgt (m).....340    490    940    1160   1250   1130
Transp wind dir.SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
Transp wind spd.12     13     15     16     14     13
Trans wind dir..SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
Trans spd (m/s).5      6      7      7      6      6
Dispersion idx..11     27     41     46     50     51
LVORI...........6      4      3      2      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Jonathan Howell (31)
Requested by...Cliff Willis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413311.1/MOB
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL clifton.willis@usda.gov