Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
496 AWUS01 KWNH 181212 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-181710- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0288 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 811 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southeast AL...Southwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 181210Z - 181710Z SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms advancing inland from the northern Gulf of Mexico will yield heavy rainfall totals over the next several hours for the FL Panhandle, parts of southeast AL and southwest GA. This coupled with locally wet antecedent conditions will likely foster areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows clusters of cold topped convection (-65C to -70C) over the northern Gulf of Mexico that are beginning to overspread areas of the FL Panhandle. The activity is focusing along and out ahead of a front as a wave of low pressure advances northeast along it and also interacts with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled over the region. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are focused all across the warm sector areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico northeastward through the FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and into southwest GA. PWs across the region are generally in the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range with a corridor of deep tropical moisture focused along and just ahead of the front. This coupled with increasing deep layer forcing associated with right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics and favorable shear profiles is expected to maintain a rather well organized convective threat through the morning hours that will overspread the FL Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Rainfall rates should be very high and capable of reaching 2.5"/hour given the level of instability/moisture and persistent forcing through the vertical column. Given the orientation of the convection relative to the deeper layer steering flow, there is likely to be some cell-training, and with these high rainfall rates, some storm totals this morning may be particularly heavy. The morning hires model consensus may be a bit underdone with the rainfall potential given the ingredients that are in place. Given the current satellite and radar trends, some rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with isolated heavier amounts will be possible. The heaviest totals will be over the FL Panhandle, with somewhat lesser amounts over southeast AL and southwest GA. Many of these areas have already seen heavy rainfall over the last 12 to 18 hours, and these additional rains are likely to foster areas of flash flooding with locally considerable/significant impacts possible. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31958306 31738222 31288235 30968339 30758396 30468465 30208535 30118574 30438724 30838745 31098699 31568543 31888408