Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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350 AWUS01 KWNH 280213 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-280812- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Kansas, far northeastern Oklahoma, western and central Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 280212Z - 280812Z Summary...An elongated MCS continued to produce areas of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates across southeastern Kansas currently. These rates will gradually spread into western and central Missouri while continuing across Kansas potentially 3-6 more hours. Flash flooding remains likely for at least another 3-6 hours, and significant impacts are possible. Discussion...A persistent, intense MCS continues to extend along a line from near Clinton, MO west-southwestward to near Ponca City, Oklahoma. This MCS continues to remain oriented favorably for training and very heavy rain rates (exeeding 2 inches/hr at times, and a broad swath of 3-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed and estimated per MRMS. Along and southeast of the MCS, strong southerly flow at 850mb (40+ knots) was helping to maintain moist and strongly unstable air parcels (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW values) into the MCS, promoting strong and efficient updrafts while maintaining the MCS on its trek into western Missouri. Of particular concern is the fact that additional convection continues to develop on the southwestern flank of the MCS across far northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Another linger segment was located near Alva, OK that should reach areas that have experienced heavy rainfall today. As long as backbuilding continues, areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should continue with this MCS, potentially producing another 2-5 inches of rain through 08Z tonight. FFGs range from the 1-2 inch range across far southeastern Kansas/western Missouri to the 0.25 inch/hr range from Kay County, OK to Elk County, KS. These values will be easily exceeded beneath training convection. Flash flooding remains likely, and significant impacts are possible. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39469290 39419212 38779115 38089128 37449250 36869492 36549722 36409853 36989870 37599789 37929735 38649625 39299438