Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow will continue through Tuesday with additional
  snowfall accumulations of 3-5" across west central and central
  Minnesota. Snow amounts taper off quickly to the south and
  east.

- Much cooler air returns Tuesday through Wednesday night, which
  could lead to a flash freeze scenario after a couple days of
  liquid precipitation.

- Temperatures warm back into the 40s and 50s for highs with
  lows still flirting with freezing through the remainder of the
  week with only low chances for precip through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Today through Wednesday...A complex late season winter storm is
ongoing across the region as we head into the final week of March.
The impressive snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr were most certainly
realized for a few hours Sunday evening before snow transitioned to
rain. Snowfall totals through early this morning are around 4-8" in
the Twin Cities metro with western Wisconsin coming in with several
of 6-9" reports. MSP and EAU both set new daily snowfall records at
8.2" and 10" respectively. Things from the north metro southward
have changed over to rain or wintry mix in the past 2-3 hours, so it
will be hard to get any more accurate snowfall measurements. As for
today, it`ll be majority rain along and southeast of a line from
roughly Redwood Falls/St. Cloud/Mora with temperatures in the upper
30s to mid 40s. QPF amounts for today are quite impressive with
another inch to inch and a half for southern and eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Of course, this is not ideal on top of the
new snowpack and will create quite a mess of things, but we`ll
gladly take whatever precip we can get. Concerns for a flash freeze
hold off until late Tuesday evening into Wednesday when temperatures
plummet on the backside of the low. Another thing of note is while
the more favorable environment for storms lies across Iowa (see SPC
SWODY1), a rumble of thunder is not out of the question for southern
Minnesota this afternoon.

North and west of the aforementioned RWF/STC/JMR line, snow will
continue as the surface low slowly pivots over Nebraska and Iowa
through the next 24-36 hours. The Winter Storm Warning will remain
in effect for additional snowfall amounts of 3-5" combined with
strong northwest winds tonight through Tuesday. Gusts of 30-40 MPH
are possible overnight for far western Minnesota and will spread
eastward through the day Tuesday as the surface low begins to track
towards the Great Lakes.

Aloft, the main 500mb cutoff low associated with the surface feature
over Iowa gets absorbed into a stronger, northern stream shortwave
early Tuesday. As this occurs, FGEN looks to reinforce the area of
ongoing precip across western Minnesota and give us one last push of
wintry weather area wide as it moves east with temperatures falling
throughout the day. This could lead to hazardous travel conditions
as surfaces will likely still be wet as temperatures fall below
freezing. A quick 1-2" of snow, possibly mixed with
rain/sleet/freezing rain, is expected through Tuesday evening as the
system finally departs. Sun will return Wednesday, but temperatures
will remain in the 20s to near 30. Wednesday night will be the
coldest of the period and will hopefully be one of our last, if not
the last, shots of single digit temperatures for the season.

Thursday through Sunday...Warm air advection works back in to the
Dakotas and Minnesota late Thursday and Friday with a return to more
seasonable late March temperatures. There are low chances for precip
through the weekend, but none look particularly impressive nor
consistent from run to run at this point in time. With overnight
temperatures still falling below freezing but daytime highs in the
40s and 50s, the timing of any potential precip could make for some
p-type concerns as we head into April.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Several waves of light/mod -SN have passed across and will
continue to pass across all TAF sites through this evening while
southern MN has now started the changeover to -RA, and this
includes KMKT. Visibilities will commonly run 1-2sm, with
occasional 1/2sm from time to time. Snowfall rates this evening
may reach the 1-2 in/hr range, particularly with the strong
band of precipitation over southern MN making its way north-
northeast. Warm ground and compaction with the liquid-heavy snow
has prevented optimal accumulation. IFR/LIFR conditions will
prevail through most of, if not all of, this TAF duration. After
06z, precip type will mix with and change over to -RA for
southern MN, helping increase visibilities a little but also
contributing to a drop in ceilings with warmer air over the
fresh snow. Western MN will remain as all snow, while central MN
into eastern MN will have the most mix of rain/snow. Breezy NE-E
winds will persist throughout, with sustained speeds 10-15kts
with gusts 20-25kts.

KMSP...Bands of heavier snow just south of MSP Airport at
initialization will slowly shift north across the Twin Cities
metro, likely producing 1-2 in/hr rates through 07z or so, with
visibilities around 1sm. Precip will transition to rain through
the early morning hours and continue as rain through the day
tomorrow. However, while visibilities may slightly increase, low
stratus ceilings will likely drop due to the warmer air.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR likely, Chc RA/SN. Winds NW 15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR, w/ MVFR possible. Chance -SHSN. Winds W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Benton-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Mille
     Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow
     Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for Chisago-
     Isanti-Sherburne.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-
     Renville-Scott-Washington-Wright.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron-
     Polk-Rusk.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-
     Dunn-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC


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