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000
FXUS63 KMQT 260658
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today with minimum relative
humidity dropping to 20-30 percent over much of the area while south
to southeast winds become gusty to 20-30 mph.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into early
next week, bring rain showers and thunderstorms across our area.
More of the rainfall arrives with the second low.
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, with
the greatest chances over the south central and east. The severe
weather threats are marginally severe hail and winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level troffing over
western N America with a vigorous shortwave over CO that is
supporting shra/tsra across the Plains, particularly over Nebraska.
Downstream, mid-level ridging is over the Mississippi Valley,
extending into northern Ontario. The associated sfc high pres is
well to the e over Quebec and the ne U.S. Closer to home, it`s
another quiet night across the fcst area under clear skies. With the
sfc high pres well to the e and low pres over western KS, s to se
winds are stirring, particularly across western and northern Upper
MI. As a result, current temps are higher than yesterday at this
time despite the clear skies and similarly dry column. Current temps
mostly range thru the 30s, but 40s are noted over the w, and some of
the traditional cold spots central and e are down into the mid/upper
20s F. The northern lights are currently showing up on our n facing
camera.

Low pres over western KS will lift to eastern Nebraska today. Pres
gradient btwn this low at around 990mb and high pres ridging at
around 1032mb over New England will support increasing s to se winds
today. High clouds will be on the increase, but that won`t stop
sufficient building of mixed layer to tap stronger winds. Fcst
soundings suggest gusts of 25-30mph will become common today. In
addition, there will still be drier air aloft to mix down since
moisture feed in response to the Plains low won`t reach the area yet
today. With temps reaching the upper 50s and lwr 60s F away from
marine influences and dwpts likely falling to as low as around 20F,
RH will bottom out in the 20-30 pct range. A few spots across the w
may slip blo 20 pct. Although temps are a little shy of the typical
criteria for elevated fire wx conditions, a couple of drying days,
especially yesterday, and the expected winds gusts and low RH
support issuing a Special Weather Statement highlighting the
elevated fire wx conditions today. Given the antecedent dry air over
the area, opted to hold off any shra mention over far western Upper
MI until 22z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The high pressure moves out Friday and gives way to a more active
period this weekend through next week, with rain showers and
thunderstorms moving into the far west as soon as late Friday
afternoon/early Friday evening. There is a marginal risk for some
severe weather Saturday as showers and thunderstorms continue across
our area while the low pressure system moves into Lake Superior.
Behind this low, a second low pressure system brings more showers
and thunderstorms back across the region early next week. While it
looks like we will receive a quick reprieve from rainfall come next
Tuesday, more shortwave lows look to impact our area by the end of
the extended period.

The dry weather continues into the first half of Friday as the high
pressure responsible continues to leave the area for the Atlantic
off of the New England coast. In it`s wake, a 986mb low over the
Central Plains lifts towards Lake Superior throughout the day,
increasing cloud cover across the U.P. by the afternoon hours. With
the sun being out even into the early afternoon hours over the west
though, and with the antecedent dry air conditions near the surface,
thinking the RHs will bottom out to the mid 20 percents to around 30
percent across the interior areas of the U.P. by early Friday
afternoon. In addition, with winds increasing from the south to
southeast ahead of the approaching low to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph in the higher elevations and downslope areas, we could see
borderline to elevated fire weather conditions across the area
Friday as temps will be fairly similar to today. Therefore, follow
all burn restrictions put out by your local DNRs on Friday. As the
warm front of the low starts moving into the far west Friday
afternoon, we begin seeing some showers and thunderstorms
developing. As the antecedent dry air in the lower levels finally
gives way to the precipitation aloft, the rain showers and
thunderstorms spread into the rest of the U.P. from west to east
throughout the rest of Friday night. As the low`s center looks to
enter into far western Lake Superior Saturday morning, a dry slot
behind the warm front looks to move over our neck-of-the-woods. This
will reduce the shower and thunderstorm activity across the area
Saturday morning, and could even open up some spots of sunshine in
the cloud cover. Should we see some patches of sunshine in the
clouds Saturday, then expect the chances for severe weather to
increase, particularly across the south central and east. Currently,
most of the CAMs has severe thunderstorms missing our CWA to the
south and east of us. However, with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/kg in the
GFS and 2000 J/kg in the NAM, and with 0-6 km bulk shear being
around 50 kts, severe weather is certainly a possibility up here
Saturday (10 to 15% chance of seeing marginally severe hail and/or
wind). The only limiting factor will be the uplift; thus, if we get
some breaks in the clouds Saturday, expect our severe weather
chances to increase. In addition to the severe weather, we could
also see some heavy rainfall in some isolated spots, even though the
model consensus keeps the heaviest precipitation amounts out of our
area Saturday through Saturday night. Therefore, while it is
certainly not expected, there is a small chance (20 to 30% chance)
that some low-lying poor drainage areas could see some localized
flash flooding should multiple storms pass over.

A quick reprieve from the precipitation could (30 to 40% chance) come
early Sunday morning before more rainfall moves over the area the
rest of Sunday through Monday as a second low pressure system lifts
through the Upper Midwest. While bulk shear values are greater
Sunday, there is almost no CAPE to work with. Therefore, no severe
weather is expected Sunday through Sunday night as the warm front
passes through our area. That being said, the models do show higher
QPF totals, with many areas possibly receiving over an inch of
rainfall. Therefore, this second low pressure system is the one most
likely to bring a soaking rainfall to our area these next several
days. In addition, I`m thinking the chances for flash flooding will
be ever so slightly higher over the poor drainage areas. As we move
into Monday and Monday night, the cold front of the low moves
through Upper Michigan, bringing additional rainfall to the area.
Given that we would then be under the warm sector of the low ahead
of the cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shears near 45 kts and MUCAPEs
currently near 500 to 1000 J/kg, severe weather could (10% chance)
be a possibility Monday. The rainfall finally leaves the east Monday
night as weak ridging builds in from the west.

We look to get a quick reprieve from the rainfall next Tuesday as
high pressure ridging quickly slides through the Upper Midwest.
However, model guidance brings a shortwave low from the Northern
U.S. Rockies back across us come Tuesday night/Wednesday. As we look
ahead beyond the extended period, it appears that an active weather
pattern will continue, as the CPC still has above normal chances for
precipitation and above normal chances for temps for the 8 to 14 day
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR will prevail for most of the TAF period under high pressure.
However, high clouds will increase early this morning and a
transition toward MVFR will commence late in this TAF period as the
next disturbance approaches.  Main threats though continue to be the
strong south-southeasterly surface winds later today and a LLWS
threat overnight and then again tonight with an associated low
level jet. Greatest LLWS threat will be at IWD, but increasing
confidence in LLWS at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 421 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue the rest of this
afternoon through tonight before winds increase from the southeast
to 20 to 30 knots across the eastern lake Friday (east winds 20 to
25 knots over the western lake by the evening). The higher winds
continue into Saturday, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots
being possible over the far eastern lake near the international
border Friday evening and again Saturday morning. As a low pressure
moves into Lake Superior Saturday, expect the winds to calm down to
20 knots or less again. However behind the low, a second low begins
lifting towards the Upper Midwest. This causes winds to veer to the
northeast, with gales up to 40 knots being possible over the far
western lake Sunday afternoon and evening. As the low`s center lifts
through Lake Superior Monday, the winds veer towards the south as
they decrease to 20 to 25 knots. As the low`s cold front moves
through Monday and Monday night, expect winds to pick up from the
west to 20 to 25 knots, before dying down to 20 knots or less again
by Tuesday as weak ridging moves back over the area.

Thunderstorms are possible over the lake from Friday evening to
Monday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning to
     2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ240-241.

  Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ244-245.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ246.

  Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ248.

  Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ249-250.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ251.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Rolfson/TDUD
MARINE...TAP