007
FXUS64 KMRX 020043
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
843 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes to the forecast for the overnight period. With a larger
dew point/temp spread tonight than last night, fog development
will be more confined to near bodies of water and maybe places
where ground moisture from recent rains is higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.

2. Fog tonight should be more confined to on and near bodies of
water.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will remain in control across the region for
the short term. Light winds and clear skies will lead to favorable
radiational cooling overnight and fog will be possible once again
tonight into Thursday morning. However, with time for top soils to
dry from previous rainfall the thoughts are this will be more
limited to on and near bodies of water. These thoughts match up
well with ensemble guidance for probability of visibility less
than 4 miles. Upper level height rises occur into Thursday
afternoon as anomalous ridging settles in. Above normal
temperatures and dry conditions will persist. With convection
expected across Mississippi River valley, we could see some high
clouds advect across the area late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near normal to above normal temperatures through the long term.

2. Unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms
each day of the long term.

Discussion:

No big changes to the long term forecast period. The theme of the
long term is near normal to above temperatures along with chances of
showers and storms each day. No signs of any severe or organized
storm threat at this time.

Thursday night into Friday the upper ridge pushes eastward as a
broad longwave trough noses in from the west. A weak cold front
accompanies the trough and increasing POPS are in place ahead of the
cold front. The front moves through on Saturday, keeping POPs in
place areawide. An additional cold front moves in on Sunday, keeping
POPs elevated across the area.

On Monday, ridging builds back into the area. However, a shortwave
will ride the western periphery of the ridge and move across western
TN and into the Great Lakes. This shortwave will keep POPs in place
across our area through Monday. POPs remain in place Tuesday and
Wednesday as we are under quasi-zonal flow with a broad long wave
trough in place over much of the the central and western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly FEW clouds tonight and
tomorrow. There is a possibility for fog development in the early
morning hours near TRI but I am not confident that vis will get
down to less than 1 mile. Some guidance has a large dew point/temp
spread at max cooling around sunrise and some guidance has a 2 or
3 degree spread. With ground moisture present from recent rains,
some fog is definitely possible mainly near TRI. Very light winds
will become more southerly tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  88  66  82 /   0   0  20  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  87  62  79 /   0  10  10  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  87  62  79 /   0   0  10  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  85  58  82 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
AVIATION...McD