280
FXUS65 KMSO 011944
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
144 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure spinning east of the Continental Divide
will result in snow over about 4000 feet in elevation for the
Glacier Park region, east of about Essex, this evening and
overnight tonight. The main impacts of this system will be about 3
to 6 inches of snow on Highway 2 from Essex to Marias Pass, with
higher amounts east of the Marias Pass summit. Backcountry
travelers in Glacier Park and the surrounding Flathead, Swan, and
Mission Ranges will experience winter-like conditions today and on
Thursday as the higher peaks look at about 6 to 12 inches of new snow.
The low will move east on Thursday.

A broad trough will remain over the Northern Rockies on Thursday
as the upper level jet stays to our south. Enough moisture will
remain for scattered showers and cloudy skies. The best chance for
fair weather during the current forecast period will be Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon as a ridge tries to form
over the Northern Rockies. High pressure does not last long,
though.

There is good agreement among model ensemble solutions for a
closed low pressure circulation to enter the Pacific Northwest
later in the day on Saturday. Showers will begin over north-
central Idaho on Saturday evening and spread north and east into
western Montana by Sunday morning. Ensemble clusters support an
active weather pattern under a general upper level trough with
intermittent showers and cooler temperatures Sunday (May 5th)
through the first full week of May. Many details are still
uncertain, but snow levels will likely drop to at least pass
levels once again.


&&


.AVIATION...Low pressure east of the Continental Divide will keep
persistent mountain snow showers going near the Divide with
reduced ceilings, especially in the Glacier National Park region,
and in the vicinity of the Swan and Mission Ranges through early
Thursday. The remainder of the region will experience an uptick
in afternoon showers with gusty winds of 20-30 kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$