Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 190604
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1104 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Dry weather conditions will prevail through Thursday with a gradual
cooling trend. Expect periods of night time and morning low clouds
in the favored coastal and valley locations. Then, unsettled
conditions are projected to return by Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Low stratus clouds are slowly progressing onshore along portions
of the North Bay, SF Peninsula, and around the Monterey Bay.
Expect clouds to fill in around the remainder of the coastal Bay
Area and Central Coast overnight with patchy fog possible as well.
This is well represented in the current forecast and more
information about it is included in the discussion below. No
changes necessary this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Satellite imagery is showing low clouds off of the coast from the
San Francisco Peninsula and points northward early this afternoon.
These clouds will spread back inland overnight and to the south into
tomorrow morning. Overnight lows are forecast range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s region-wide.

Once low clouds erode, tomorrow afternoon temperatures will warm
into the upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast and upper 60s to mid
70s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

There`s good global model agreement that a consolidation of a few
lows will take shape over the eastern Pacific Tuesday night into
Thursday. On Friday light to moderate rain will begin spreading
across the forecast area as the newly formed eastern Pacific low
gets nudged eastward. Wet weather is in store for late week and
the weekend, with highest rain totals 1" to 1.5" mainly along the
coast especially across the coastal hills and mountains.
Relatively lesser amounts of rain will fall over inland locations,
with the least amount of rain over the southern interior where a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch are forecast. As always, the
forecast can change, especially if convection develops, this could
boost local rainfall amounts. Stay tuned to the latest updates.
If planning travel to or across the high mountain country check
with your local NWS office(s) or favorite media outlets for
forecast details, it`ll be cold enough for snow, please plan
accordingly if traveling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Currently VFR with Night Fog showing stratus starting to approach
coastal airport terminals. As mentioned in the 00Z discussion,
ceilings will be the main restrictor over visibility tonight with a
few coastal sites, HAF and OAR, reporting unlimited visibilities and
ceilings less than 1000 feet. Pushed back the arrival of stratus for
SFO, OAK, and SJC. Conditions are still breezy at SFO and OAK which
may limit fog development potential for the next few hours. Winds
will start to drop off between 07-09Z so pushed back stratus arrival
to 07Z. Moderate confidence that fog will develop at STS overnight
with the highest probabilities between 11-16Z. Moderate confidence
that stratus will move into APC overnight with slightly lower
confidence that fog conditions will develop.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with IFR conditions expected
overnight. Night fog shows stratus developing to the west of SFO but
not quite reaching the airport yet. Pushed back the arrival of
stratus at SFO to 07Z with guidance indicating 07-09Z as the
likeliest time for stratus to arrive. Breezy northwest winds will
gradually weaken and become light overnight. In terms of timing,
models already had light winds forecast at 00Z but observations show
breezier conditions are still ongoing. Current TAF has winds
weakening at 07Z but breezier conditions may linger until 09Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with conditions expected to
transition to IFR within the next hour. Night Fog shows stratus
beginning to move inland from the Monterey Bay with stratus stopping
just shy of MRY and SFO in the latest image. IFR to LIFR ceilings
are possible overnight with some potential for fog development in
the early morning. Moderate to high confidence that IFR stratus will
develop at MRY and SNS, low to moderate confidence that fog will
develop. Light, SW winds at MRY and light, NW winds at SNS are
expected overnight with moderate NW winds to return during the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure over the region will continue the pattern of fair
and sunny weather through at least mid Thursday. Winds out of the
northwest and light to moderate through at least Wednesday. Come
late Thursday, chances of light rain begin initially over the
northern waters and winds turn to become more westerly. Through
the day Friday, rain begins to slowly move southward. Moderate NW
swell gives way to a new longer period NW swell train late today.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Sarment

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