Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 170531
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1031 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Clear afternoon skies and pleasant temps persist into the middle
of next week. Subtle return of stratus during the early mornings
to favored coastal and valley locations. Return to a wetter
pattern by the end of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Minor update this evening to increase coastal cloud cover for
developing patches of low stratus. Somewhat lower confidence in
whether they`ll hang around all night given the`ve been somewhat
transient, but best odds for continued stratus feeds are through
the Golden Gate, around the central portions of Monterey Bay, and
along the San Mateo coast. No other changes and the forecast is in
good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 118 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Really not much to write home about in the short term. Current
satellite showing a few clouds offshore associated with shallow
marine moisture. Temps through the weekend slightly above normal
for many locations. Low to mid 70s inland and mid 60s along the
coast. Some favored coastal locations may see a return of summer-
like stratus Sunday morning as moist onshore flow returns today
under synoptic-scale descent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 118 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Quiet pattern continues into next week with temps Monday rising to
near 80 for some inland valley locations (southern Salinas Valley
and portions of the southern Santa Clara Valley). Upper 60s to
mid-70s elsewhere. Temps begin to gradually decline after Monday
as the ridge begins to break down and the pattern starts to flip.
Long range guidance has been consistently advertising a more
active pattern entering the picture by the end of next week.
Ensemble guidance is generally in good agreement on an open upper
low moving into the EPac. Many details regarding timing and
placement are currently lacking, but nearly all ensemble members
advertise a minimally impactful and beneficial rainfall situation
for the Bay Area and Central Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Patchy stratus is developing across the coastal region and across
the East Bay Hills. Low to moderate confidence in the forecast for
any future stratus intrusion or reduced ceilings for the rest of the
night. Monterey Bay terminals have already reported MVFR ceilings
with STS, OAK, and SJC seeing IFR-MVFR ceilings developing early
Sunday morning. VFR with light to breezy onshore flow returns Sunday
afternoon. More widespread stratus develops Sunday night into Monday
morning, at or after the end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... Light winds through the course of the night. Not
expecting SFO to develop a reduced ceiling tonight as the stratus
flows through the Golden Gate and into the eastern SF Bay. Breezy
northwest winds return Sunday afternoon with more expansive stratus
expected Sunday night into Monday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Intermittent MVFR-IFR ceilings for the
rest of the night, opting to keep prevailing ceilings through Sunday
morning as timing of any breaks is very difficult given patchy
nature of stratus. VFR conditions and light onshore winds expected
Sunday afternoon, with a more contiguous stratus deck developing
Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 911 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Quiet conditions continue with moderate period northwest swell
continuing to diminish through the weekend with another light
northwest swell arriving early next week. Gentle winds continue as
well, becoming more moderate and northerly by late Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 118 PM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Taking a breather from the rainfall events, it`s a good time to
pull some stats. Here`s a look at where a few sites are for
rainfall so far this water year (10/1/23 to 3/15/24), as well
as a comparison to where we were at this point last year.
Site Normal 2023-24 2022-23
Santa Rosa (Co-op) 25.99" 28.35" 38.38"
Napa State Hospital 21.79" 20.19" 28.27"
Kentfield 37.17" 38.63" 53.63"
San Francisco Dwntn 18.78" 21.95" 28.62"
Oakland Dwntn 18.67" 17.46" 31.10"
Redwood City 15.76" 15.21" 30.08"
Fremont 12.81" 14.97" 25.43"
Livermore (Co-op) 11.71" 12.24" 22.39"
Salinas 10.14" 10.61" 13.06"
Monterey 13.20" 13.04" 20.56"
King City 9.69" 13.13" 16.56"
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPM
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SPM
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