Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 132351
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
451 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The gradient between strong high pressure to the North and East and
a low pressure trough over coastal California is supporting strong
offshore winds through Friday morning. Otherwise clear skies and a
noticeable warming trend dominates the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday morning)
Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
An upper-level omega blocking pattern has taken shape. This has
caused the surface pressure field to change dramatically over the
last day or so. Strong high pressure has built over the Pacific
Northwest with the sea level pressure at Seattle-Tacoma increasing
an impressive 25 mb in 36 hours. Ridging from this system is
developing over the Intermountain West and interacting with a low
pressure trough along the coast of California to create strong N-NE
winds, particularly in the North and East Bay Mountains. Mt. Diablo
has been reporting strong winds all day, with the latest observation
gusting to 30 mph. Winds will continue to increase through the
afternoon and evening. Besides the strong wind, skies will stay
mostly clear with low humidity and near normal temperatures for this
time of year. By Thursday morning, the higher elevation winds will
begin to mix down to the adjacent valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
By Thursday, the parent upper low begins to meander westward,
causing the core of the stronger winds to move westward as well.
Expect winds in the valleys to peak through Thursday morning before
gradually weakening into Thursday afternoon. Do expect some mountain
wave type dynamics to continue into late Thursday night/Friday
morning over the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mtns, so winds will likely
remain gusty a bit longer at high elevations in those areas. By
midday Friday, winds across the area should be on the sharp decline
as we head into a much quieter pattern going into the weekend.
Beginning Friday daytime highs look to be in the upper 60s to lower
70s across much of the area and mid-60s along the coast through at
least next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
High confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period.
The main concern will be strong and gusty winds. Some models lack
guidance on wind speeds and timing. Therefore, there is some
uncertainty on the occurrence of gusty winds and their timing,
but expect periods of gusty winds through the TAF period with
chances of LLWS across all terminals, except KSFO, early Thursday
morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with winds being
the biggest concern. Other surrounding terminals are expected to
see low- level wind shear overnight, but KSFO is more likely to
have some of the offshore jet energy mix down to the surface as it
moves over the Bay. Therefore, winds are expected to remain
strong with chances of gusty winds overnight. Moderate confidence
on timing that winds will diminish to moderate by Thursday
evening, will monitor for any updates needed.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period, with a chance
of LLWS early Thursday morning as well as some strong gusty winds.
Expect winds to return to breezy sustained winds by the late
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 450 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Strong northerly winds continue with some areas seeing gale force
gusts. Northwest swell reduces but strong winds will prolong
hazardous conditions over the seas. Winds will begin to weaken
Thursday, becoming light for the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502-504-512-514-515.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Thursday for
CAZ506-510.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday
for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Murdock
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