Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 122336
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
436 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A weakening cold front has pushed into Southern California, ending
our last chance for rain for quite some time. Strong offshore
winds will develop Wednesday night in interior portions of the
North and East Bay. Otherwise, expect clear skies and a warming
trend through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Current radar continues to show light rain showers moving through
the Santa Clara hills and Monterey and San Benito counties this
afternoon. Expect shower activity to gradually diminish this evening
with the slight possibility of a stray shower or two elsewhere
across the region before tonight. Tonight, skies begin to clear as
high pressure builds over the EPac with a deep upper low digging
into the Great Basin/Mountain West, which will promote a drying
trend through the next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

By Wednesday night we are fully entrenched in a very stable omega
block pattern anchored by a strong upper level ridge over the
northeast Pacific. At the surface, high pressure will build over
the Intermountain West while a surface trough develops along the
west coast. This gradient will support strong to near gale force
winds from the N/NE beginning Wednesday night in the interior
North and East Bay mountains and hills. These winds will
eventually make it down to the adjacent valleys and Thursday will
be quite windy across these populated areas. Strong winds will
linger in the mountains into Friday.

Besides the strong winds, the weather will be pretty nice into
early next week. Clear skies will prevail as a warming trend kicks
off. By Friday, the forecast calls for an afternoon high of 70F in
San Francisco, a mark that has only been hit twice this year (73F
on Jan. 29 and 71F on Feb. 24). The warm weather and clear skies
will last through the weekend. By that time, the winds will also
calm down and it should be quite nice.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Showers have completely moved out of the area allowing for any
low CIGs to improve to VFR conditions. Northwesterly moderate to
breezy winds will diminish to light tonight before becoming breezy
and gusty winds by Wednesday afternoon. Expect VFR to prevail
through the TAF period with mostly clear skies and a few high
clouds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with a few high clouds.
NW winds is expected to keep increasing with chances of gusty winds
near 03Z, but moderate confidence at this moment. Winds diminish
overnight but breezy conditions return Wednesday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. KSNS may see
MVFR ceilings on and off for the next hour but confidence is low. NW
moderate winds are expected to diminish overnight before breezy and
gusty winds return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Subtropical high pressure is building in behind an earlier cold
frontal passage. The gradient between these two features is
supporting a fresh NW breeze across the coastal waters as a
building NW swell arrives. By Wednesday the swell will gradually
abate, but winds will simultaneously increase to a strong NW
breeze, keeping conditions hazardous for small vessels. Winds
will shift offshore Thursday, allowing conditions to gradually
improve through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504-
     514-515.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday for
     CAZ506-510.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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