Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 182348
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
448 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Dry weather conditions will prevail through Thursday with a gradual
cooling trend. Expect periods of night time and morning low clouds
in the favored coastal and valley locations. Then, unsettled
conditions are projected to return by Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Satellite imagery is showing low clouds off of the coast from the
San Francisco Peninsula and points northward early this afternoon.
These clouds will spread back inland overnight and to the south into
tomorrow morning. Overnight lows are forecast range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s region-wide.
Once low clouds erode, tomorrow afternoon temperatures will warm
into the upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast and upper 60s to mid
70s across the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
There`s good global model agreement that a consolidation of a few
lows will take shape over the eastern Pacific Tuesday night into
Thursday. On Friday light to moderate rain will begin spreading
across the forecast area as the newly formed eastern Pacific low
gets nudged eastward. Wet weather is in store for late week and
the weekend, with highest rain totals 1" to 1.5" mainly along the
coast especially across the coastal hills and mountains.
Relatively lesser amounts of rain will fall over inland locations,
with the least amount of rain over the southern interior where a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch are forecast. As always, the
forecast can change, especially if convection develops, this could
boost local rainfall amounts. Stay tuned to the latest updates.
If planning travel to or across the high mountain country check
with your local NWS office(s) or favorite media outlets for
forecast details, it`ll be cold enough for snow, please plan
accordingly if traveling.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Currently VFR across the board. Fog is exclusively forecast for STS
with stratus forecast for the rest of the terminals. There is
moderate-high confidence that all terminals will see some form of
flight category reduction within the TAF period, with tonight
generally looking to be more of a ceiling restrictor than a
visibility restrictor. The signal tonight is quite similar to the
signal from last night; however, since models/guidance did not
handle last night`s scenario well, forecast tonight is less bullish
and more conservative while leaning on persistence. Widespread VFR
will prevail by tomorrow afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow.
Stratus will impact the terminal from the late hours of tonight into
the mid-morning hours of Tuesday. The westerly wind direction during
this time will facilitate a favorable environment for stratus to be
fed through the San Bruno Gap. Breezy westerly winds will prevail
tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly
flow at both terminals. Stratus will impact the terminals overnight
and into the mid-morning hours with MRY becoming IFR and SNS
becoming MVFR. Breezy W/NW winds return to the terminals by mid-
morning tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
High pressure over the region will continue the pattern of fair
and sunny weather through at least mid Thursday. Winds out of the
northwest and light to moderate through at least Wednesday. Come
late Thursday, chances of light rain begin initially over the
northern waters and winds turn to become more westerly. Through
the day Friday, rain begins to slowly move southward. Moderate NW
swell gives way to a new longer period NW swell train late today.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...AC
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