856
FXUS63 KOAX 080442
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1142 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
  evening in northeast Nebraska and western Iowa

- Light showers and a few rumbles of thunder linger through the
  Thursday, with drier conditions and highs in the 70s returning
  for a weekend conducive to being outdoors.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Pleasant weather has developed over the area this afternoon
with 15-25 mph southwesterly winds and current temperatures
ranging from the low to mid-70s. A drier airmass has lead to
slipping dewpoints, too, making the afternoon all the more
comfortable under sunny skies. Weak convection has produced
some 20 dBz radar returns over northeast Nebraska thanks in part
to diurnal heating and a vort max embedded in the westerly flow
rounding the upper low at 500 hPa. Isolated PoPs are warranted
through the daylight hours.

The low, mostly stacked to the surface, will split in two over
the next 24 hours, with a piece ejecting quickly east over the
Great Lakes and a low remaining behind, sinking slowly south
over the Northern Plains. A weak shortwave at 850 hPa will
bring a chance of showers / thunder tonight for areas along and
south of Interstate 80 from about 10p to sunrise. Little to no
QPF is expected with dry low levels in place.

.WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...

Troughing remains but becomes oriented east to west in a Rex
block type pattern. With the trof axis stretched across the
northern half of the CWA, thunderstorm chances will remain with
chance POPs. Lapse rates will skyrocket as the surface heats and
temps slip at mid-levels. CAPE may sneak up the Missouri River
Valley and peak near 1000 J/kg and enough bulk shear for a
slight chance of strong to severe thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Best chances will be north of a line from Red Oak, IA
to Columbus, NE. Pattern recognition suggests weak funnels are
possible.

Thursday`s pattern remains mostly unchanged and diurnally driven
POPs of 20% (east) to 45% (west) push south with the trof axis.
CAPE will be diminished when compared to Wednesday. Temps will
slip 5-15 degrees with CAA and will fall shy of mid-May
averages.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND....

Still expecting a shortwave to dive south through Iowa on
Friday, but its rain looks more likely to fall east of this
CWA. Have removed isolated chances of precip. Sunny skies should
drive temps back into the 70s.

Temps climb in response to increasing heights and the West
Coast ridging prodding the trofing east. Ample high-angle
sunshine helps push temps past the 80 mark on Sunday and the
zonal flow suggests persistence is the right move for early next
week, too.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few
showers could sneak into southeast Nebraska tonight and drift
northward through Wednesday morning. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over northeast Nebraska and
western Iowa Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few of these
storms could contain hail and gusty winds. Overall, confidence
remains low in whether or not precipitation will impact the TAF
sites at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG