Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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807 FXUS63 KOAX 262349 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE Issued by National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms Today and Saturday with strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding possible. Greater flooding threat on Saturday night. - Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday as well, to a lesser degree, but brief tornadoes possible as well. - Storms wrap up by Monday, with warmer temperatures arriving next week. Another round of showers and storms possible Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Skies are clearing from the southeast this afternoon as storms are starting to develop near the center of the surface low across central Nebraska. There`s already one supercell that has developed west of Grand Island. We`re watching towering Cu start to develop across north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska out near Hebron which will be our line of strong to severe thunderstorms for this afternoon. We have a primed environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km helicity that increases to 200+ across southeast Nebraska. Seems like this could be a day where any individual storm will be capable of producing a strong tornado. Storms will be moving into the Lincoln area around 3 PM, the Omaha Metro around 4 - 5 PM, making it to the Missouri River around 5 PM, and out of our area by around 7 to 8 PM. Some of the CAMS show the potential for an additional storm or two trailing behind the main line, but the severe window for each area will center mostly around the main line of storms. Once storms clear the area this evening, we`ll see clearing skies across most of our area. We will have low clouds spread south out of South Dakota overnight tonight into Norfolk, but probably won`t make it as far south as Omaha. Saturday morning we`ll be between systems, dry with light winds. We`ll see a warm front lift north during the afternoon with the approach of our next low pressure system. We`ll see initial storm development along and ahead of the warm front around 6-7 PM with several rounds of storms developing and training along the warm front which stalls somewhere along I-80. With training storms, we add the significant potential for flash flooding in addition to large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds Saturday evening, with the significant severe threat possibly not ending until after midnight. We`ll see a third chance for severe storms on Sunday as the center of the surface low passes over our area Sunday afternoon. This will be a lower threat, but should not be overlooked. This will be similar to what we saw about ten days ago where we had a couple brief tornadoes that popped up from low-topped supercells that developed in a similar environment as the surface low again passed right over our area. We could also see hail up to quarter-size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. All storms should finally exit our area after midnight Monday. For the extended forecast, we just don`t have time right now to do an in-depth analysis beyond day three. See previous discussion below: We finally receive a break from the active weather pattern on Monday and into early next week, with just a few minor showers and storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will generally top out in the 70s next week, with a few locations reaching the low 80s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Severe convection exits the area over the next couple of hours, departing Shelby county by 27.01z. Non severe showers and isolated storms linger through the evening and into the early overnight hours, moving east. MVFR and lower ceilings will begin to improve, with VFR conditions returning through the overnight period. Winds decrease and continue to shift to more northwesterly by early Saturday and northeasterly by the afternoon. Shower chances return for KLNK/the southern I-80 corridor by mid tomorrow afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG/McCoy AVIATION...SG