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000
FXUS64 KOHX 201122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface obs this morning show cool, dry air across Middle TN in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Radar also shows some showers
that have developed mainly across west TN this morning. Given the
dry air in place, not expecting much to come from this other than
sprinkles at best. Otherwise this weekend, temperatures will stay
cool as surface high pressure currently centered over Montana
travels southward into the southern Great Plains, keeping surface
winds northerly over Middle TN. Aloft, weak embedded disturbances
may result in some very light rain at times, mainly for areas
south of I-40. Most will probably only notice increased cloud
cover with the passage of these weak disturbances.

By Sunday night, clouds will clear out of the area. Combined with
light winds, low temperatures are expected to fall into the 30`s
which may lead to patchy frost across much of the area as we head
into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Temperatures will warm next week, and highs are expected to be
back into the 70`s by Tuesday. Overall, most of next week actually
looks to be fairly quiet. Tuesday night does feature an upper-
level trough sending a weak cold front through the area. This may
result in a few showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday, this
time mainly for areas north of I-40. But the trough looks to be
too far north for anything significant, and any precipitation
should be light at less than a tenth of an inch.

For the next chance of rain and thunderstorms, we have to look
ahead to next weekend as a large upper-level low digs into the
southwestern US, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft and
moisture advection across Middle TN. Some model solutions do show
an embedded shortwave ahead of the larger low that may result in
a more active weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light rain will affect BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB at the beginning of the TAF
period, but dry conditions are expected at airports from 14Z
through the rest of today with VFR cigs. North winds this morning
will increase after 14-15Z with gusts to around 20 knots through
the afternoon, before decreasing again after 21/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  46  62  40 /   0  20  10   0
Clarksville    64  43  61  38 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     62  40  56  35 /  10  30  30   0
Columbia       67  45  62  37 /  10  40  10   0
Cookeville     63  43  57  37 /  10  20  10   0
Jamestown      63  40  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   65  45  61  38 /  10  40  20   0
Murfreesboro   67  44  62  37 /  10  30  10   0
Waverly        65  44  61  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Shamburger