211
FXUS64 KOHX 271320 CCA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
819 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms that have been over west TN
continue to fall apart as they approach the TN river. This trend
will continue as they push into the more stable environment over
us and loose their forcing. Still can`t rule out a few sprinkles
this morning through about 10 AM or so but not expecting any
measurable rain. The cloud cover will bring warm morning
temperatures. Clouds will then gradually clear during the
afternoon and evening with highs in the 80s. Wind will be the main
impact for today. High pressure will be sitting off to our east
and a deep 996 low will track into the Great Lakes. This will
bring a good pressure gradient over us resulting in gusty winds.
Winds will already pick up by daybreak but the strongest gusts can
be expected mid-morning into the mid-afternoon with gusts 20-30
mph, isolated up to 35 mph.

High pressure will continue to influence our weather on Sunday
bringing another dry day with highs in the 80s. The pressure
gradient will be weaker on Sunday and that will bring less breezy
winds but we still could see some gusts 15-25 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The active pattern to our west will start to push east a bit early
next week. This will push a short wave and weak cold front into
our area later Monday into Tuesday bringing shower and
thunderstorm chances. Severe weather looks low as forcing will be
marginal with this front, also CAPE looks marginal along with poor
lapse rates and lack of good shear.

Weak ridging looks to build in mid-week but we will keep some
instability around along with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
This will bring afternoon thunderstorm chances. Wednesday and even
Thursday we won`t see much forcing and widespread thunderstorms
are not expected. The next better chances for thunderstorms will
come late in the week as a front approaches the area. Ensembles
still are struggling with the timing of this front and there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with it. Highs through the period will
remain warm in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 818 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Showers in western TN will
diminish as they push east and should not be an issue but a few
sprinkles through 15z can`t be ruled out. Winds gusts up to 25
knots today, but will start to diminish after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  84  65 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    82  64  84  65 /  40   0  10  20
Crossville     74  59  77  59 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       83  64  83  64 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     77  61  79  63 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      77  59  80  61 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   82  64  81  64 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   83  64  83  66 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        84  65  83  66 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....CC