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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151439 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OK. SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST AHEAD OF IT WILL DO THE SAME THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH PWATS
FROM THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING 158 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND A HIGH
CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SPECIFICALLY FROM NEAR THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED BRIEF YET VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS WET
MICROBURSTS. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
15-21Z...AND LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEEDED. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBILITIES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF TSRA EXPECTED SOUTH AND
EAST OF TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND NEAR/EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LAPSE
RATES WILL COINCIDE. LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHERE LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS UPPER LOW AND
NORTHWARD PROGRESSIVE COMPLEX OVER METROPLEX MEET WILL LIKELY BE
AREA WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR.

NEXT MAIN PERIOD FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STORMS
AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER
COMPLEX MAY AFFECT RED RIVER REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
WITH YET ANOTHER AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ECM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING DAYTIME MOST AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  72  90  70 /  60  10  30  60
HOBART OK         89  71  96  72 /  60  10  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  73  96  73 /  80  10  10  20
GAGE OK           90  69  92  69 /  20  30  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  71  91  71 /  50  20  40  70
DURANT OK         88  75  92  73 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03