841
FXUS64 KOUN 031143
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers/storms will continue into the morning hours with
the highest chances in east central and southeast parts of the fa.
The severe potential with this activity has diminished but still
could get some gusty winds out of the stronger storms. Heavy
rain/localized flooding will also be possible, especially in those
areas that have already received several inches of rain and where
storms train.

The frontal boundary that moved across parts of the area Thursday
will lift back north later today with moisture spreading back
northward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area
later today and move into the fa this evening/overnight. Meanwhile,
another cold front is expected to begin to move into the fa
overnight/early Saturday which would also be a focus for
shower/storm development. Severe storms will be possible starting
this evening with damaging wind and hail possible.

Highs today are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

With the frontal boundary over the fa and potentially a shortwave
moving across the region, showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms will be possible again
Saturday evening and overnight with damaging wind and hail. However,
what might be a bigger concern this weekend is the potential for
more widespread heavy rain with heaviest amounts expected across the
southern half or so of the area. With the recent heavy rainfall that
has already occurred, this heavy rain could lead to additional flash
flooding/river flooding in several areas.

For Monday, models show an upper trough approaching and moving into
the Plains. At the sfc, a dryline develops and moves into the area.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with severe storms
possible. The potential for severe weather could be greater on
Monday compared to the next few days due to the added upper air
support. There are some uncertainties since what happens over the
weekend could affect the airmass over the region but with the upper
support and dryline, thunderstorms/severe storms are possible Monday.

After Monday it looks like there could be a period of quieter
weather for at least the middle of next week with highs in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A very low stratus deck will keep most of our terminals from LIFR
to MVFR conditions through 16-21Z. Dense advection fog coming up
from north Texas will also be reducing visibility`s for a few
hours at terminal KSPS. All terminals will have returned to VFR
conditions after 21Z although may return to MVFR to IFR conditions
after 06Z due to lowering ceilings. Thunderstorms may develop
after 00Z across northern Texas which could affect all terminal
generally west of I-35, although probabilities are low so PROB30
groups are in the potentially affected terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  63  77  60 /  20  40  90  70
Hobart OK         78  60  76  58 /  30  50  80  80
Wichita Falls TX  80  62  78  61 /  30  40  80  80
Gage OK           79  54  68  51 /  20  70  50  60
Ponca City OK     78  61  73  57 /  10  60  80  60
Durant OK         82  65  79  64 /  30  30  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ041>043-046>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68