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000
FXUS64 KOUN 170636
AFDOUN

DDHHMM
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT A FEW SITES. LOWER CIGS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AS OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO THE AREA. ALSO REMOVED ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  83  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         64  88  68  98 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  91  70  99 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           62  89  65  95 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  83  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         66  82  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/02