Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000
FGUS73 KPAH 291541
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-141200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
938 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for
much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries
in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A
strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and
warmer winter across the entire region.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
While some rain fell earlier this week along a cold front, rain
totals were negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations
across the region for the month of February have been less than one
inch. While there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger
rivers, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood stage.
Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 30 percent of
normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running 20 to 40 percent
of normal. Most areas are near to below normal average flow.
While surface soil moisture has significantly rebounded since the
extremely dry fall and early winter last year, deeper soil moisture
and longer term accumulative averages remain below normal. There is
no frost depth in our region. There is no significant snow in either
the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 25 41 16 26 <5 6
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 60 71 26 33 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 71 66 47 39 24 21
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 34 45 <5 8 <5 <5
Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 58 69 <5 8 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 79 <5 <5 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 27 37 <5 9 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 69 83 21 38 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 63 76 <5 9 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 67 63 52 50 21 18
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 44 43 37 35 25 24
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 77 83 24 27 <5 <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 15 34 <5 17 <5 10
:Current River
Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 10 24 <5 14 <5 9
Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:Mississippi River
Hickman 34.0 40.0 43.0 : 72 >95 51 69 35 58
Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 80 <5 61 <5 41
New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 50 65 17 27 <5 <5
Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 49 75 27 57 12 34
:Ohio River
Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : 73 94 50 64 22 38
Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : 69 91 52 64 24 45
Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : 58 69 44 53 8 15
Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : 49 62 9 20 7 15
:St. Francis River
Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 8 25 7 23 <5 21
Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 52 55 15 19 <5 9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 53 56 13 14 <5 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 53 73 31 47 14 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 15.1 15.7 16.5 18.0 23.0 27.9 29.8
Paradise 373.5 374.8 378.2 381.1 386.3 389.6 390.8
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 19.1 21.8 26.1 31.7 34.9 36.6 37.6
:Ohio River
Evansville 28.2 29.6 33.5 37.8 41.0 42.5 42.6
Golconda 32.7 33.8 35.1 38.2 41.1 44.2 46.4
Henderson 24.0 25.2 28.8 33.1 36.3 37.9 38.1
Mount Vernon 28.2 29.0 32.1 36.4 39.9 41.7 42.0
Newburgh Dam 31.1 32.7 37.4 41.0 43.7 44.4 44.6
Owensboro 28.4 29.6 33.5 36.6 40.2 41.3 41.6
Shawneetown 27.1 29.1 31.5 37.4 42.2 45.4 47.1
J.T. Myers Dam 29.4 31.8 34.5 39.7 43.2 45.5 47.2
:Patoka River
Princeton 11.6 12.9 17.0 20.2 22.4 24.9 25.8
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 9.3 10.1 11.1 13.4 20.1 23.1 23.4
:Wabash River
New Harmony 10.7 12.4 15.3 17.6 19.9 21.0 21.6
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 13.5 17.1 18.2
:Current River
Van Buren 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 7.0 14.5 18.8
:Mississippi River
Hickman 29.5 30.1 33.0 40.4 44.8 50.6 52.5
Cape Girardeau 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Madrid 24.3 24.9 27.1 34.1 37.7 41.9 43.9
Thebes 20.0 20.1 26.8 32.8 37.4 42.9 46.7
:Ohio River
Cairo 35.2 36.5 39.5 46.9 51.5 57.9 59.6
Olmsted Lock and 31.0 31.7 33.8 42.9 46.6 51.9 55.0
Paducah 27.3 28.3 33.2 41.8 46.5 50.6 54.9
Smithland Dam 26.2 27.3 30.2 39.8 43.8 47.0 52.3
:St. Francis River
Fisk 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 13.5 16.9 25.4
Patterson 6.8 7.3 11.0 16.4 19.0 28.2 30.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 11.8 13.7 16.9 20.2 23.0 27.7 32.3
Murphysboro 12.8 14.1 18.2 24.5 30.4 41.5 42.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5
Paradise 367.9 367.5 366.2 365.6 365.2 365.0 364.9
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 5.8 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9
:Ohio River
Evansville 17.5 16.1 15.2 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.6
Golconda 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5
Henderson 15.0 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.4 12.2 12.1
Mount Vernon 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3
Newburgh Dam 17.7 16.5 15.4 14.3 13.6 13.3 13.1
Owensboro 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 19.6 18.4 17.5 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.2
J.T. Myers Dam 19.7 17.8 16.2 14.9 14.0 13.0 12.9
:Patoka River
Princeton 6.7 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
:Wabash River
New Harmony 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 8.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.7
Murphysboro 7.5 6.6 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Weather Outlooks...
Weather will be quiet through the weekend. While there is a small
chance for some light rain overnight tonight, the weekend looks dry.
The next chance of rain will not be until early next week. Seven day
rain totals may be around one inch.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 7 through 13 calls for above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this
time, normal average temperatures are 45 to 50 degrees and rainfall
during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches.
The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation.
This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models
and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above
normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4
1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal
precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
March 14 2024.
$$