Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 270110
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
910 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Pre-frontal showers will continue to advance through the region
today. There will be an axis of heavier rainfall between
Pittsburgh, PA and Zanesville, OH. Scattered shower chances
continue into Wednesday as a slow moving cold front crosses
after midnight. Dry and seasonable conditions then develop for
the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Pre-frontal rain showers tapering off; cold front moves
  through after 2am.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Evening Update:
Pre-frontal rain has all but tapered off this evening as a dry
slot moves into the region, aside from a few departing light
showers over the high terrain. Station obs and reports from
across the area show the greatest rainfall occurred generally
northwest and west of Pittsburgh, where between 1-1.5 inches
fell across portions of eastern Ohio. The rest of the are saw
between 0.5-1.0 inches, with the exception being our eastern
counties where less than 0.5 inches fell (from generally Clarion
and Dubois down through Indiana and Latrobe, and even into
Preston and Tucker Counties in WV).

Looking upstream, we`re currently tracking a line of showers
that has developed along the cold front itself as it advances
across western and central Ohio toward the local area. Not much
is expected from this line of showers as it should begin
dissipating by the time it reaches eastern Ohio, falling apart
completely before reaching Pittsburgh or areas east. Thus, most
of the area is done with rain for the night, except perhaps a
brief shower with little additional QPF (perhaps a few
hundredths of an inch). Made adjustments to the PoPs in this
evening update to reflect this. The rest of the forecast remains
on track, with lows tonight ranging from low/mid 40s over
eastern Ohio to upper 40s across western PA and northern WV.

4PM update:
A stalled pre-frontal trough has created a localized area of
heavier rainfall over the last 6 to 8 hours between
Pittsburgh,PA and Zanesville, OH. An additional 0.35 inches to
0.55 inches is expected through late this evening and sharp
rises along creeks and streams are likely through early
Wednesday.

Dry slotting will wrap across the region after dark, cutting
off more widespread rain and leaving light, scattered showers
after 10pm.

Hi-Res model guidance suggest the cold front will enter eastern
OH after 2am. A narrow, broken line of showers are expected with
the passage of the cold front. A brief period of dry conditions
are expected in the wake of the front before isolated light
shower activity advances before dawn into eastern OH/western PA
and cooler conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered light showers will end by Wednesday evening with a
  building ridge to the west.
- High temperatures may trend above or near average for
  Wednesday if the cold front stalls across western PA.

------------------------------------------------------------------

By 6am Wednesday, the cold front is expected to enter western
PA and stall. However, with dry slotting, rain shower activity
will be light or absent. Afternoon high temperatures may climb
near or above average, especially east of Pittsburgh, PA as a
result of weak advancement of the front. Areas along the ridges
may range from the mid-50s to upper-50s.

Cold air will finally drain into eastern OH just before midnight
and overnight temperatures Wednesday into Thursday will range
from the upper-30s to near freezing. Probability of freezing or
below freezing temperatures is above 70% for counties in
eastern Ohio that reside north of I-70 and for counties in PA
along I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather is expected to end the work week.
- A passing shortwave returns rain chances Easter weekend.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast
Thursday and Friday. Despite cooler and seasonable temperatures
on Thursday, renewed warm advection will bump Friday
temperatures just above average with plentiful sunshine.

Probabilities are high (above 90%) that precipitation returns
to the Ohio River Valley over the weekend as a shortwave tracks
across the Great Lakes. The 75th to 25th percentile depicts
rainfall amounts across region ranging from 0.25 to 0.50
inches. However, there is still remains a lot of uncertainty due
to how quickly the shortwave displaces east and the strength of
the ridge over the center of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain has become lighter and spottier over the last couple of
hours as a dry slot works into the region, and will continue to
exit to the east this evening. Ceilings are generally in the
MVFR to low VFR range presently with a couple of IFR holdouts in
PIT and BVI. Some modest improvement is expected this evening in
the dry slot. Wind gust of 15 to 25 knots will also be possible
this evening, mainly west of PIT, although these will relax this
evening. Low level wind shear remains a concern into the
overnight hours with a low level jet overhead.

Cold frontal passage after 06Z will be accompanied by a thin
line of showers into eastern Ohio, with hi-res models continuing
to indicate that these will mostly fade before reaching western
PA. However, MVFR ceilings become more likely again towards
sunrise (50-80% probability on the NBM) in recovering low-level
moisture. LLWS concerns relax by sunrise as the low level jet
departs.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday but restrictions may linger
into late morning with lingering boundary layer moisture.
Probabilities for MVFR CIGs hold at 40-70% until around
noontime, with improvement to VFR likely thereafter.

.Outlook...
VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday
under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come
Saturday with a passing wave.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...MLB/CL


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