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000
FXUS65 KPIH 140818
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
218 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined area of low
pressure moving into northern California this morning, near San
Francisco, and this feature will play a role in local weather over
the days ahead as it moves through the Great Basin. By later this
evening, this feature will be centered across northern Nevada.
Southerly flow will increase across the region throughout the day
allowing for breezy south winds in the 15-20 mph for much of the
region. These will likely be a bit higher closer to the Nevada and
Utah borders where we will flirt with Wind Advisory criteria. For
now, it looks too marginal for an advisory but winds do like they
will get there on Monday and perhaps a few other places as well. We
should see an increase in cloud cover as we progress through the day
today and by the time we get into the evening hours, perhaps some
scattered showers as well. Hi-res CAMs show a wide range of
solutions so not too much confidence in any particular location(s)
but the best chances appear to be across the southern extent of the
forecast area. Temperatures today are expected to remain above
normal but cooler than the past few days by some 5-7 degrees with
increased cloud cover.

As we move into Monday, the low continues to trek east into Utah and
eventually western Colorado. Height falls and more widespread cloud
cover should limit daytime highs back into the 40s and 50s for much
of the region although some lower 60s are still possible. Hi-res
models show quite a bit of convective potential as we get into the
afternoon and evening on Monday, especially along and east of the I-
15 corridor. This will be something to monitor over the next 24
hours or so.  As previously mentioned, winds will be a concern on
Monday as well. A Wind Advisory looks more likely across the South
Hills and perhaps into the Magic Valley with some 50+ mph gusts
certainly possible. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Tue through Sat night
The track of an upper level low to the north is key to what happens
during this period. It sinks far enough south on Tue afternoon to
start a threat of precipitation. Tue night and Wed continues with
a threat of precipitation as the closed low is slow to move.
South of the low, the westerly flow generates enhanced
precipitation in the eastern and southeastern highlands, plus the
northern half of the central Idaho mountains. By Wed, the low has
moved on and an upper level ridge returns to dry conditions out.
Temperatures are slow to warm with west northwest airflow and a
stagnant boundary keeping the really warm air to the south. The
upper level westerly flow is very strong, especially Wed/Wed
night, and continued breezy to windy for Thu and Fri. Wed may need
a Wind Advisory. Messick


&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting mainly VFR conditions through the period although some
showers are expected around the region today which could lead to
some localized reductions. Clouds will likely increase throughout
the day but CIGs should remain around 10Kft or so. Breezy southerly
winds are once again expected in the valley terminals of KPIH, KIDA
and KBYI. Will maintain VCSH everywhere, for now, but best chances
look to be around KPIH and KBYI. Shower potential will likely hold
off until after 15/00Z but perhaps we could get something a few
hours sooner. McKaughan

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels remain elevated on the Portneuf River in Pocatello and
Topaz where River Flood Warnings and an advisory, respectively,
remain in place. There haven`t been any significant changes to the
forecasts at either location. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$