729
FXUS65 KPUB 120458
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1058 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial round of precip moving over far eastern plains at this
  time; two more rounds of precip afterwards, the first late
  this afternoon/early evening and the second occurring tomorrow
  with the cold frontal passage.

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
  the region tomorrow night, and will continue to dissipate from
  west to east going into the morning hours on Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the
  afternoon, from Monday through Thursday. Best chance for
  precip on plains will be Wednesday.

- High elevation snow will be possible each day, especially
  above 10,000 ft.

- Friday will be drier, with only a few afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms over mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently...

A band of precip was moving east over the far eastern plains with
much needed precip occurring over this region. Another round of
precip was getting organized over the S mtns/San Luis Valley and was
also moving east. The primary upper low driving all of this
beneficial precip was opining over the 4 corners. Cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies prevailed over the region at 2 pm with  temps in the
50s over the I-25 corridor, around 60 over most of the rest of the
plains and mid 60s over the far eastern plains. Valleys were in teh
40s with 20s and 30s mtns. Some thunder was noted over the region,
mainly over the higher terrain.

Tonight and tomorrow...

Initial band of precip over th far eastern plains will continue to
move east into KS by late afternoon. Another band which is over the
mtns will continue to organize and push east out onto the plains
late this afternoon and across the rest of the plains this evening.
We will then likely see a break in the precip over the region this
evening into tonight, but another band of precip will start to
organize over the central mtns and will push southeast during
the day tomorrow. This last band is associated with the cool
front that will push across the region later tomorrow morning
and into the afternoon. Winds will get a bit gusty from the NW
after the front goes by tomorrow afternoon. We may also see
some banding precip along the mtns/plains interface late
tomorrow afternoon as an area of low level convergence sets up
over this region.

With all of this precip, beneficial precip will continue to occur,
with more much needed precip falling across the plains during the
next 24 hours.

As for snowfall, the best chance of seeing accumulating snow will be
over the central mtns and the Pikes Peak Massif. Most of the
frozen precip will fall during the daylight hours tomorrow, and
this will keep the accumulating snow at the highest elevations.
/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday night...

The upper level low is going to continue to progress eastward with
scattered showers and thunderstorms being possible throughout the
night, and generally dissipating from west to east as the U/L low
continues to pull away from the region. There will be some clearing
occurring over the higher terrain by later in the night, and this
will help to allow for some radiational cooling to bring down lows
into the upper teens to low 20s for the highest elevations and
within wind-protected high mountain valleys. Otherwise, temperatures
will be more modified with clouds and moisture around. Lows will
generally be in the mid 40s for most of the plains, with mid 20s to
30s elsewhere for high country. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will still be possible over the eastern plains for daybreak on
Monday.

Monday through Friday...

During this period, a longwave trough will be positioned over the
central to eastern portion of the CONUS, which will allow for
disturbances to continue to move over and the northwesterly mid
level flow will keep a feed of moisture moving in to allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly during the
afternoon hours, from Monday through Thursday. This pattern will
overall not only help to keep things unsettled, but also allow for
temperatures to remain on the cooler side as well, especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a embedded shortwave transitions over and
allows for northerly winds at the surface to advect in some cooler
air. There could also be some high elevation snow on Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially over 10,000 ft. Best chance of precip moving
out onto the plains will be Wednesday and the northwesterly flow
becomes even stronger behind the wave. As the shortwave moves out by
Thursday morning, the plains will continue to dry out by later in
the day although there will still be some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain. By Friday, there
will be an eastward shift in the longwave with some slight ridging
over the region, which will yield to this day will being the
warmest and driest for this period, with only a few showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon due to
some residual mid level moisture and orographic lifting. -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper low will continue to translate north and east across south
central Colorado and into northeastern Colorado through the
day on Sunday. This will bring deformation band precipitation
to the central mtns tonight and into the Pikes Peak region
Sunday morning and across the southeast Plains Sunday afternoon.

For COS, PUB and ALS, recent rains and light winds overnight,
should allow for MVFR to possible IFR cigs to develop through
the overnight hours. Breezy northerly winds to develop through
the morning, with low VFR to MVFR conditions to continue into
the early afternoon with scattered to numerous showers. Showers
diminish with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the
taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MW