Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
431
FNUS75 KRIW 262333
FWSRIW
Spot Forecast for Sublette Co. Rx Practical...Sublette County Unified Fire
National Weather Service Riverton WY
533 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service
.DISCUSSION...Complicated weather pattern for the next two days.
Scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue
this evening through about sunset, then rain/snow showers for the
rest of the night into the morning. West winds at the site will
shift to the east-southeast overnight, and should generally
remain from the southeast into Saturday. Some forecast guidance is
indicating the heaviest precipitation to be overnight, then just
scattered showers on Saturday. Total precipitation should be
between 0.25" and 0.50". With this wet pattern, gusty outflow
should remain below 30 mph. Precipitation chances decrease
considerably late Saturday evening.
...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-90 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms through 2400,
then rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms after 2400. A slight chance of
snow showers after 2400 as well.
CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 35 percent after 2400.
Chance of pcpn......60 to 70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....30-32.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
southeast by 2100. Gusts up to 20 mph are also
likely. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......North around 10 mph shifting to the east late
in the evening, then increasing to around 15
mph after 2400.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL after 2100.
Transport winds.....North around 12 mph shifting to the east 15 to
24 mph after 2100.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (19500 knot-ft) after 2400.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74 74 74 73 73 72 72 73 74 75 76 76
Weather cov.....SCT SCT CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RS RS SW SW SW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 60 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 70
LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............52 51 44 42 40 40 38 37 36 35 36 33
RH..............40 41 60 73 82 82 85 85 85 85 89 100
20 FT wind dir..NW N NE E E SE E E E E SE E
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 8 8 9 13 14 17 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 12 12 13 18 19 25 22 22 20
Ridge wind dir..N N N E E E E E E E E E
Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 15 15 15 25 25 25 25 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 4.3 4.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.N N N E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.12 12 12 15 15 15 23 23 23 24 24 24
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDspl kt-ft/100044 44 44 20 20 20 24 24 24 24 24 24
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow and rain showers
likely before 0900. Rain showers possible through
the rest of the day, but heavier between 1100
and 1400. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
after 1200.
CWR.................15 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1, then 2 after 1200.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast 16 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (63500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89 90 91 91 91 90 90 91 91 91 91 91
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....SW SW RS RS RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............33 32 34 36 41 42 43 46 47 47 49 48
RH..............96 100 96 89 85 76 68 63 58 58 54 54
20 FT wind dir..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..14 12 11 12 13 12 13 11 12 11 10 11
20 FT wind gust.19 17 16 17 18 17 18 16 17 16 14 16
Ridge wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Ridge wind spd..20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDspl kt-ft/100018 18 18 34 34 34 56 56 56 64 64 64
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-90 percent). Scattered rain
showers, snow showers and isolated
thunderstorms before 2100, then isolated
rain showers and snow showers overnight.
CWR.................35 percent decreasing to 0 percent after 2400.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 11 mph shifting to the
southwest 6 to 7 mph late in the evening, then
shifting to the west-northwest around 5 mph
around 2400. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms before 2100.
Ridgetop wind.......South 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
overnight.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest
around 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86 86 87 88 86 85 83 81 80 78 79 80
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RS RS RS RS SW SW SW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 47 43 40 38 38 37 36 35 33 33 32
RH..............56 63 70 79 85 85 89 89 92 96 96 100
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S SW W W W NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
20 FT wind gust.16 13 12 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
Ridge wind dir..S S S SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
Ridge wind spd..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE S S S W W W NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.16 16 16 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDspl kt-ft/100048 48 48 8 8 8 5 5 5 6 6 6
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West
winds around 12 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West
winds around 14 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. West
winds around 10 mph.
$$
Forecaster...McDonald
Requested by...Cass Urbigkit
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411968.0/RIW
.DELDT 04/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cass.urbigkit@sublettecountywy.gov