589
FXUS61 KRLX 291752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
152 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly
dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions will continue for the most part tonight as a surface
high pressure slides east of the Appalachians. This will allow a
cold front to approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the frontal passage and the
aid of diurnal heating, available moisture and some deep layered
shear. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at this
time.

However, tall skinny soundings with PWATs about 1.5 inches (2
standard deviation from climatology) suggests heavy downpours
will be possible on Tuesday. WPC has painted the entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday.

The front briefly stalls across our north Tuesday evening,
before lifting north as a warm front.

Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, except mid
50s over the northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness, increasing
winds, and cooling showers will keep afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 152 PM Monday...

High pressure, surface and aloft will provide hot, but mainly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. By Friday, showers and
storms will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching front as
surface low lifts north into Canada. This front will be slowly move
into the area through Saturday, with a southern stream shortwave
moving through the area over the weekend, providing additional
rounds of showers and storms. This should also provide cooler
conditions over the weekend, as compared to the hot and humid
conditions expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1158 AM Monday...

High pressure, surface and aloft will provide hot, but mainly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. By Friday, showers and
storms will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching front as
surface low lifts north into Canada. This front will be slowly move
into the area through Saturday, with a southern stream shortwave
moving through the area over the weekend, providing additional
rounds of showers and storms. This should also provide cooler
conditions over the weekend, as compared to the hot and humid
conditions expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 142 PM Monday...

Widespread VFR conditions prevailing through tonight as a high
pressure moves east of the area. A cold front approaches from
the northwest early Tuesday morning, with showers arriving to
the Mid OH valley by 12-13Z. Precipitation will start falling
from an upper deck keeping VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings will
develop along and west of the OH River by 16-18Z Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front moves through. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms may also develop during the afternoon and
evening, during the peak of instability. Uncertain whether
MVFR/IFR conditions will spread east to affect other terminals
at this time.

Winds may gust between 13-16kts at times this afternoon due to
mixing ,but this will mostly be observed at the western sites of
HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio. Winds become
near calm by 23Z or so.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR conditions at western
terminals may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. IFR conditions possible due to dense fog
Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ