539
FXUS61 KRLX 071038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the
frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding.
Severe storms are possible today and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 638 AM Tuesday...

Minimal changes needed as temps and sky conditions remain on
track this morning. Did opt to include areas of sprinkles across
the southern half of the forecast area based on light radar
returns streaming through the area.

As of 325 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

 * Potential for isolated to scattered severe storms late this
   afternoon into tonight.

 * Mature storms will be capable of producing large hail,
   damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

 * Locally heavy rain sustains a favorable environment for
   isolated flash flooding, especially in areas that have
   obtained an excessive amount of rain the past few days

A stationary boundary remains the root cause for unsettled
weather today amid warm and humid conditions. At the time of
writing, activity from the previous evening has faded and
drifted out of the area, leaving behind a plethora of low level
moisture to yield a canopy of low level stratus and instances of
valley fog. Similar to previous mornings, the first part of
today looks to remain fairly quiet under partly to overcast
skies and perhaps a few mountainous showers before midday.

Attention then turns to the west later this afternoon and
evening as isolated to scattered convection evolves along a
potent low level jet. Strong to possibly severe weather will
gradually stretch into the area during peak heating hours and
prevail into this evening. The longevity of storms encroaching
the forecast area tonight will be propelled by the jet and the
presence of the aforementioned stationary boundary, but should
gradually face a weakening trend late tonight as weak ridging
aloft builds into the area. Main concerns with storms during
this forecast period will be damaging wind, large hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Deep southwesterly flow will usher in increasing moisture
levels throughout the day and bring the return of daytime
temperatures climbing back into the 70s/80s. Coupled with
dewpoints in the 60s across the lower elevations, heavy
downpours will likely accompany convection later today. PWATs
on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches will once again fester over
the area by this afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings depict a fairly slow storm motion, imposing
further concern of rapid development for flash flooding in areas
that have already seen impacts from overly saturated soils the
past two days across parts of eastern Kentucky. Strongly
considered a Flood Watch for parts of the Ohio River Valley for
late this afternoon into tonight, but will hold off for now as
FFG recovers early this morning in the midst of minimal showers
at the time of writing. As the frequency of showers/storms
increases over the next 24-48 hours, a Watch is certainly not
out of the question for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

A triple point low pressure system out over the Midwest will
lift a front through the area starting this period. Frontal
passage is forecast to occur across Wednesday as the front
surges south and then lifts north as a warm front when the low
gets closer to the area. Bouyancy associated in the warm sector
will allow for possible thunderstorms some of which could become
severe due to high wind shear. With mid to upper 60F dewpoints
advecting in from the southwest the airmass is quickly going to
recover and support thunderstorm activity throughout the day.

The aforementioned system will push in a cold front on Thursday
which will have the ability to support supercell activity
during the day. All hazards can be associated with this system
as it is forecast to move across toward the northeast just
grazing the northern periphery of our CWA. Heavy downpours will
be a thing to consider with flash flood guidance very low in
certain area, especially along the Ohio River on the WV side. A
few tornadoes cannot be ruled out of the broken line expected to
enter the CWA from the southwest according to Hi-res models.

Damaging wind and large hail are possible as well with severe
indices indicating high shear for prolong hail growth lifted in
the updrafts, plenty of instability and high DCAPE values which
will support downbursts potential. This activity will likely
extent through the afternoon and evening on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Wrap around flow from the aforementioned system will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms along the mountains and the
rest of the area cannot be ruled out for that matter. Active
weather will persist through the rest of the long term period as
a system from the northwest is forecast to approach the area on
Saturday and will likely wash out most of the weekend. But
according to models they are very inconsistent on timing
therefore went ahead and accepted central guidance equating to
chances for thunderstorms and shower activity for the weekend,
even though there is potential for more activity under a broad
upper level low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 638 AM Tuesday...

The area remains socked beneath low level stratus this morning
with pockets of low visibility due to fog. Should see a slight
improvement in ceilings to MVFR later on this morning and
further into low-end VFR by the early afternoon. Showers and
storms begin to sprout upstream in the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and will propagate eastward into the area heading into
this evening and tonight. Some storms may be capable of
producing hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes in the event
activity reaches severe thresholds. For aviation purposes, brief
vsby reductions may also accompany convection today.

For tonight, storm activity winds down during the early morning
hours Wednesday, leaving behind excessive moisture to support
low ceilings once more. A strong low level jet moves into the
region overnight and may promote LLWS across the area into
Wednesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, low within areas of fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling improvements may vary
this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK