245
FXUS63 KSGF 031748
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this
  afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast
  MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight.

- Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold
  front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over
  the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and
  up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog/drizzle has set in around the area this morning.
Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should
help to clear out the fog/drizzle and improve visibilities as
it continues to push south.

Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after
the cold front moves through. This is due to the mid-level
southwesterly flow that will help us stay warm today. Winds
turn to the north just for a few hours this morning before
returning back to the southeast by late this afternoon as
surface high pressure moves over us. Another weak shortwave
moves through southern Missouri this afternoon and rain chances
return. Right now, only have a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms
with the best chances occurring over southeast Missouri. Storms
are expected to be sub-severe today. Rain is expected to
dissipate after 7 PM.

As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area
bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in
the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening
hours. Tomorrow, we are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather,
and therefore, will be a better set up than today. Storms may
become severe and could produce large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Right now, have rain lingering through Saturday night
into Sunday morning even after the front has passed through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are
chances for rain everyday through Thursday. The entire area is in
a general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday.

Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft will bring shower and thunderstorms to the area. The
better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not
expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time.

By Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to
move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of
severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC
has consistently put our western counties in KS in an area of
15% chance for severe weather for Monday. CIPS and CSU guidance
also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to
keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of
possible severe weather occuring over southern MO.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will
begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift
negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will
have better dynamics and instability for the potential of severe
storms. SPC has put eastern/southeastern Missouri in a 15%
chance for severe weather for Tuesday.

Lastly, CSU/CIPS guidance is showing the potential for severe
weather all the way through Thursday of next week. Next week
could be another busy week, stay tuned for further forecast
updates.

As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels
could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to
monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low overcast cloud cover will keep MVFR ceilings across the
region through this evening and into tonight. An approaching
storm system will bring the potential for showers and storms to
the region around or after 12Z Saturday. Where storms occur,
flight conditions will be impacted with MVFR to IFR ceilings
and/or visibilities.

Surface winds will be southeasterly in advance of the frontal
boundary with winds shifting to westerly behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Hatch