Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
394 FXUS66 KSGX 031614 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 914 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... This weekend expect cloudy and cool conditions with gusty winds in the mountains and deserts and periods of showers in and west of the mountains. Southwest to west winds will increase in strength through the day Saturday, peaking Saturday night into early Sunday. The best chances for showers will also be Saturday night into early Sunday. Dry and warmer conditions expected for next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Visible satellite at 9 AM was showing low clouds from the ocean to the coastal mountain slopes. Areas of light drizzle have been reported, mostly in the valleys. Areas of drizzle will diminish through the morning, with very slow clearing of the cloud deck this morning. By this afternoon, the valleys should be seeing some sunshine, with low confidence in complete clearing at the coast and beaches. A low pressure system is on track to move inland through California on Saturday night and dig into the Great Basin on Sunday. This system will bring cooler, cloudier, windier (in the mountains and deserts), and wetter conditions (in and west of the mountains) to Southern California this weekend. Southwest to west winds will begin to increase Saturday afternoon, peaking in strength Saturday night into Sunday, gradually diminishing into Sunday night. Winds will be strongest on the desert mountain slopes, through passes, and into portions of the deserts. Peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph expected. Isolated gusts to 75 mph are possible in wind prone locations on the desert foothills of the San Bernardino mountains late Saturday night. Winds will gradually weaken into Sunday night. For much of next week, a broad troughing pattern over the United States will enhanced the onshore pressure gradient, bringing periods of breezy winds to the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. The best chance for showers is late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Coverage will be scattered with mostly light amounts expected. A few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain are expected for the coast and valleys. One-quarter to locally one-half inch expected on the coastal slopes of the mountains with the greater amounts most likely on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. A trace of snow is expected above 7000 ft. Dry conditions are expected by Sunday afternoon. Highs Saturday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees below average for the coast and valleys, and near average for the deserts. Sunday will be even cooler, especially for inland areas with highs 10 to 15, locally up to 20 degrees below average for the valleys, mountains, and deserts. Warming conditions expected on Monday, with highs as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer for the mountains and High Desert. Much slower warming for Tuesday through Thursday with Thursday high temperatures still a few degrees below average. && .AVIATION... 031530Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds based at 1000-1800 feet MSL with pockets of -DZ lowering cigs to 800 feet and inland vis 2-5SM. Foothills obscured, but lifting and clearing. The clearing progression inland to coast should accelerate after 17Z, but with limited or no clearing in coastal areas. Low clouds will spread inland again this evening with slightly higher bases and push into foothills again by 13Z Saturday. Scatter out Saturday will be slow and gradual again Saturday morning. Otherwise...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS will continue through tonight, with increasing high clouds above 15000 feet MSL Saturday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds late Saturday through Sunday evening are likely to generate hazardous boating conditions, especially in the outer waters (30-60 NM from the coast). Current projections for strongest winds are on Sunday when gusts could be 25- 30 knots near San Clemente Island with a few gusts 20-25 knots near the coast. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected Monday and beyond. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...MM