635
FXUS64 KSHV 181904
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
204 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A field of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon will begin
to quickly dissipate around sunset this evening as high pressure
at the sfc continues to dominate. Similar to last night, winds
will be light and variable to near calm under mostly clear skies.
Likewise, this set-up will be conducive for patchy fog development
overnight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s to near
70 degrees.

Another warm day will follow on Sunday as light SE  flow returns
in the wake of advancing high pressure. Temperatures will likely
run a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to today with mostly
locations reaching into the lower 90s under a field of afternoon
cumulus once again. With a light SE breeze expected to persist
overnight, low temperatures will only fall back into the mid and
upper 60s to lower 70s.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The warming trend will continue through early next week with an
upper-level ridge building across much of the southern and eastern
CONUS. The ridge will help to deflect any convection to our north
through at least Tuesday as daily high temperatures push into the
lower to mid 90s across much of the region except for our extreme
northern zones which may remain in the upper 80s. Overnight lows
will also trend muggy and warmer as well due to the prevailing
southerly flow and increasing Gulf moisture through the first half
of the week.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will shift
farther east across the SE CONUS and Mid-Atlantic states. This
will allow for an upper-level trough shifting out of the Rockies
into the mid-section of the country to push a cold front southward
into our northern zones by mid to late week with increasing rain
chances during this timeframe. In fact, a shortwave advancing in
the SW flow pattern late Thursday into early Friday may provide
enough forcing for some strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening into early Friday morning as highlighted in
the SPC Day 6 convective outlook. We will continue to monitor this
possibility over the coming days, but at a minimum expect higher
rain chances for the middle to latter part of next week along with
slightly milder temperatures.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, fair weather cumulus SCT to ocnl BKN
this aftn with the upper low east of KMEM now. Prevailing winds
are SW at 5 to 10KT and will slack after sunset. L/V or calm
overnight with more patchy BR 3-6SM 09-13Z. Upper level high
pressure spreading into the MS River Valley will keep us warm to
hot and dry into the new work week. Next chance for convection
will be along a weak front over AR mid to late work week. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  63  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  64  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  90  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  68  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24