000
FXUS64 KSHV 190253
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has
entered Nrn and Wrn McCurtain County OK, tailing SW to near PRX,
TRL, and ACT as of 0230Z. The widely scattered convection that had
been present along the bndry has since dissipated since the
setting sun, likely given the lack of large scale ascent aloft to
help keep this convection going. Very little change is expected to
the synoptic pattern overnight, with some isolated to widely
scattered convection possible along the frontal zone overnight as
it seeps SE into NE TX/SW AR and eventually, extreme NW LA by
daybreak Friday. Despite the presence of very strong instability
remaining ahead of the front (SBCapes of 3000-3500 J/Kg) and
adequate deep lyr shear, not expected deep convection to develop
given the lack of forcing aloft, and thus have cancelled SVR Watch
#126 for McCurtain County OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR.

The frontal sfc is expected to become more shallow as it seeps
through the higher terrain of the Ouachitas overnight, with any
cold advection minimal as it nears the I-20 corridor of extreme
Ern TX/NW LA by daybreak. Still can`t rule out some isolated to
widely scattered convection along and ahead of the front, but have
toned down pops to low/slight chance in VC and N of I-20. Also
raised min temps tonight across a large part of the area ahead of
the front, given the weak cool advection and the expected cu and
low cig development expected to continue. The front still remains
progged to continue drifting oh so slowly S through the remainder
of Lower E TX/N LA through the day Friday, before eventually
settling S of the region during the evening. Attm, any -SHRA
development should be isolated with additional QPF amounts light,
while also tapering the very warm and humid conditions as of late
back to more tolerable levels.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the 19/00Z TAFs, scattered storms will move into ArkLaTex
airspace within the next few hours. Impacts look to be confined
primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, with the southward
extent of the coverage unclear, thus confidence in direct impacts
to area terminals remains low. At this time, the terminal most
likely to see any impacts looks to be KTXK, later this evening.
CIGs are showing limited brief areas of improvement between rounds
of rainfall, but look to rapidly descend overnight with the
intrusion of the system from the west, dropping to MVFR and IFR
levels by 19/12Z and potentially showing some limited recovery
during the morning and more solidly into the afternoon hours.
South winds will continue for the next several hours,
transitioning to northerly with the frontal passage overnight,
with maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts, with a few gusts of
up to 20 kts possible, particularly in the vicinity of stronger
storms.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  77  60  67 /  20  20  40  60
MLU  69  77  59  66 /  10  20  20  50
DEQ  57  71  50  59 /  30  20  70  80
TXK  62  71  53  61 /  30  20  60  80
ELD  64  70  51  61 /  30  20  40  70
TYR  62  74  60  67 /  30  20  50  80
GGG  65  75  59  67 /  20  20  40  70
LFK  68  84  66  79 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26